Sunday, September 18, 2005

Hu's Policy Shift and the Tuanpai's Coming-of-Age

Li Cheng

The promotion of leaders with Chinese Communist Youth League backgrounds (known as tuanpai) to ministerial and top provincial posts has been widely reported. Less noticed, but perhaps even more important, is how the rapid rise to power of these leaders correlates with Hu Jintao's new mandate emphasizing social fairness and social justice over GDP growth. This article analyzes the background of all 22 tuanpai officials currently serving as ministers or provincial chiefs from the perspective of two parallel developments—Hu's appeal for a "harmonious society" and the tuanpai's coming-of-age. The analysis reveals both the strengths and weaknesses of this emerging elite group and illuminates Hu's leadership style, political power, and policy orientation.

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Hu Jintao and the Central Party Apparatus

Party Affairs — H. Lyman Miller

Nearly three years into his tenure as the top leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Hu Jintao has yet to make substantial progress in consolidating his power over the key organs of the central party apparatus. Hu's predecessor Jiang Zemin also moved cautiously and with limited success to place political subordinates into these posts at a comparable point in his tenure. Soon after consolidating his position at the top of the PRC political order, however, Jiang moved more quickly to promote his associates in the central party apparatus. Now that Hu has completed a comparable transition, he may move more assertively to do the same, especially as 2007 approaches, bringing with it the 17th Party Congress.

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Saturday, September 17, 2005

Bush to Focus on Vision for Reconstruction in Speech

New York Times, September 15, 2005

WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 - President Bush is to pledge in an address to the nation from New Orleans on Thursday night that the federal government will provide housing assistance to victims of Hurricane Katrina and also help reimburse the states for costs they have absorbed in taking in evacuees, a White House official said Wednesday.

The commitments are part of a series of initiatives that the president is expected to announce as he tries to recover from the political fallout over the government's handling of the storm.

The initiatives will encompass education, health care and other social services, with specific housing and job assistance for people who return to New Orleans to live. White House officials said the president would not call for any set-asides or quotas for minorities in reconstruction contracts.

The proposals were still in the planning stages on Wednesday night, and officials said the 9 p.m. address, the president's first major speech on the hurricane, would not be a State of the Union "laundry list" of proposals. Instead, they said, it would focus more generally on Mr. Bush's vision for the reconstruction of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, with the federal government playing a supportive role to what White House officials are calling a "home-grown" plan that must be created by city and state authorities.

"We're in the beginning of the rebuilding at this point, and there are a lot of ideas that people are expressing," Scott McClellan, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Air Force One on Wednesday. "The president wants people to think big."

Mr. McClellan indicated that Mr. Bush would not use the speech to name a "reconstruction czar" to oversee the effort. A number of White House officials have advised the president to name such a czar, with Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of forces in the 2001 war in Afghanistan, being a favorite of Republicans who are pushing the idea.

White House officials also played down the notion that Mr. Bush would offer a "Marshall Plan" for New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, as the Senate Republican leadership called for in a letter to the president on Wednesday. "We stand ready to work with you to lay out a comprehensive approach to the coordination of relief and development efforts through a 'Marshall Plan' for the Gulf Coast as soon as possible," said the letter, signed by Senator Bill Frist, the majority leader, and others.

Instead, administration officials and a Republican close to the White House said Mr. Bush would offer some general principles about "building a better New Orleans" with stricter construction standards to try to avoid a replay of the recent catastrophe. Republicans said Mr. Bush would not mention a price tag, in large part because of budget and political pressures from House Republicans and other supporters angry about administration spending.

Republicans said Karl Rove, the White House deputy chief of staff and Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, was in charge of the reconstruction effort, which reaches across many agencies of government and includes the direct involvement of Alphonso R. Jackson, secretary of housing and urban development.

As of Wednesday, few if any members of Congress had been informed by the administration of the president's plans. But Congressional leaders nonetheless offered Mr. Bush advice on his speech.

"I want him to reassure the people that the big part of this fight is ahead of us, and he's going to make sure that the federal government does a better job, does its part," Senator Trent Lott, Republican of Mississippi, said in an interview on MSNBC on Wednesday night. "We're all to blame to a degree." Mr. Lott added that Congress should never have passed legislation, as the White House wanted, that made the Federal Emergency Management Agency part of the Department of Homeland Security.

"We went along with that, and I guess we'll have to go back and try to rewrite the history, but that should be an independent agency reporting only to the president of the United States," Mr. Lott said.

Who's Who in the White House

Updated: June 22, 2005

Short profiles and key stories about President George W. Bush's top advisers in the White House. The Top Two: Cheney | Rove
Senior Advisers: Bartlett | Card | Gerson | Hadley
Other Key Aides: Allen | Devenish | Hagin | Hubbard | Libby | McClellan | Miers | Wolff
The Top Two

Richard B. Cheney
Vice president
Date of birth: Jan. 30, 1941
Behind the curtain stands Dick Cheney, easily the most influential vice president in U.S. history. Cheney is a secretive and remorseless strategist, and the administration's foremost advocate of the unstinting exercise of power at both the international and domestic level. For instance, he was unwavering in his desire to go to war in Iraq. And his aggressive moves to restore power to the presidency lost since in the Vietnam War and Watergate eras have been hugely successful. In the second term, Cheney has even further expanded his own personal influence by putting his loyalists in key positions throughout the White House. Cheney himself does not poll well; he survived a slew of dump-Cheney rumors in the run-up to the 2004 election. Ironically, he is now constantly batting down rumors that he'll run for president in 2008. During the 2004 campaign, Cheney did not join in his boss's call for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. One of his daughters - the one who is not a senior State Department official - is a lesbian. But aside from that issue, Cheney and Bush have been eerily in synch since Day One. The only question is, behind closed doors, who synchs to who.
Weaned on Politics, Cheney Daughters Find a Place at the Table, New York Times, May 31, 2005
Hill to See More of Cheney Treatment, Washington Post, Jan. 20, 2005
Cheney Upholds Power of the Presidency, Washington Post, January 20, 2005
Cheney Exercising Muscle on Domestic Policies, New York Times, January 18, 2005
Cheney energizes loyal base -- and foes, Chicago Tribune, July 2, 2004
Cheney Was Unwavering in Desire to Go to War, Washington Post, April 20, 2004
The Strong, Silent Type, Washington Post, Jan. 18, 2004
How Dick Cheney Sold the War, Newsweek, Nov. 19, 2003
Official Bio and Speeches

Karl Rove
Senior adviser and deputy chief of staff
Date of birth: Dec. 25, 1950
Karl Rove is a man of many nicknames. He is the "Architect" of Bush's victories; he is "Bush's Brain." The president alternately calls him "Boy Genius" or "Turd Blossom," a Texas phrase describing a flower that grows in manure. He is the mastermind of the White House, the instigator-in-chief responsible for a series of policies and political maneuvers aimed first at getting his boss re-elected, and now at creating a permanent Republican majority. In the first term, Rove was Bush's senior political adviser, officially in charge of strategic planning and political affairs. In early 2005, Bush also made him deputy chief of staff, so he now officially coordinates the policies of the National Security Council, the Domestic Policy Council, the National Economic Council and the Homeland Security Council. The result is that Rove is the poster child for how politics and policy have merged in the Bush White House. Traditionally, governing is a considerably different matter than running for office, where winning is everything. Not so with Rove. If he eventually starts losing, he could end up taking the blame for creating a divisive presidency, aimed more at achieving partisan goals than the common good. But if he keeps winning, he will be a kingmaker even as his boss becomes a lame duck -- and his legacy could be a GOP that is indeed the ruling party for decades to come.
The Architect, PBS's Frontline, April 2005 (Includes priceless video, at the 4:45 mark, of a young Karl Rove lecturing Dan Rather about the importance of voter registration in the 1972 Nixon campaign.)
With Bush Re-elected, Rove Turns to Policy, New York Times, March 28, 2005
The Karl Rove Ascension, washingtonpost.com, Feb. 9, 2005
Barbara Walters's Most Fascinating People, ABC News, Dec. 8, 2004
The Many Faces of Karl Rove, washingtonpost.com, Nov. 8, 2004
The Controller, New Yorker, May 12, 2003
Rove's Way, New York Times Magazine, Oct. 20, 2002
Official Bio

Senior Advisers
Dan Bartlett
Counselor
Bush's longest-serving aide, the ever-cheerful 34-year-old Bartlett started working for Bush during his first campaign for governor in Texas in fall 1993. During Bush's first term as president, Bartlett was communications director. He now occupies the post that was left vacant when Bush confidant Karen Hughes returned to Texas in 2002. Officially, the job puts him in charge of strategic communications planning. But unofficially, he's the explainer-in-chief. And he's got big shoes to fill. Hughes was considered uniquely capable of channeling Bush's thinking - and she was one of Washington's finest spinners ever.
Profile: Presidential Counselor Dan Bartlett, ABC News, January 18, 2005
Official Bio
Andrew H. Card Jr.
Chief of staff
Date of birth: May 10, 1947
The iron man of the White House, Card is the longest-serving White House chief of staff since the Eisenhower administration. And he runs the most buttoned-down, leak-proof, on-task, on-time, on-message White House in history. Indefatigable, and possessing an astounding memory, Card aggressively monitors -- and limits -- the information flow to the president. "The president has to have time to eat, sleep and be merry, or he'll make angry, grumpy decisions," Card said in a radio interview described in this column. "So I have to make sure he has time to eat, sleep and be merry. But I also have to make sure he has the right time to do the right thing for the country, and that he gets the right information in time, rather than too late." During the George H.W. Bush administration, Card was deputy chief of staff and transportation secretary. In the interregnum, he was the automotive industry's chief lobbyist. He is considered a potential candidate for governor in Massachusetts.
White House suits Card just fine; Says he won't run if Romney decides against second term, Quincy Patriot Ledger, May 13, 2005
Pressure Cooker; Andrew Card Has the Recipe for Chief of Staff Down Pat, Washington Post, January 5, 2005
Andrew Card gets another chance as Bush's chief of staff, Knight Ridder Newspapers, Nov. 12, 2004
A Powerful Player in the White House; Behind the Scenes, Chief of Staff Andy Card Rules With a Firm Hand, Philadelphia Inquirer, Jan. 26, 2004
Official Bio

Michael J. Gerson
Policy and strategy adviser
As Bush's chief speechwriter in the first term, Gerson gets credit for soaring oratory that often transcended its pedestrian delivery. As an evangelical Christian, Gerson also gets credit for the injection of Christian themes, imagery and language into the White House communications strategy. Promoted in the second term to the position of policy adviser - and moved to a new office just around the corner from the Oval - fellow staffers call him the conscience of the White House.
Soul of a Conservative, National Journal, May 14, 2005
Bush Gets a New Voice for Second Term, Newsweek.com, January 5, 2005
Bush's References to God Defended by Speechwriter, Washington Post, December 12, 2004
For Bush's Speechwriter, Job Grows Beyond Words, Washington Post, October 11, 2002
Official bio

Steve Hadley
National security adviser
Date of Birth: February 13, 1947

Easily the most low key and self-effacing national security adviser in recent history, Hadley is the smiling face of the hawkish policies advocated less charmingly by his mentor, Vice President Cheney. After four years of devoted service as deputy to Condoleezza Rice, Hadley moved across the hall into the big office in the second term. He's deeply loyal to Bush, unfailingly polite and widely liked -- but Hadley's job isn't just to formulate and promulgate policies. It's also to tell Bush things the president doesn't necessarily want to hear.
So, What's Not to Like About Amiable Advisor?, Los Angeles Times, June 6, 2005
Stephen Hadley walks out of the shadows and into the spotlight, Cleveland Plain Dealer, April 24, 2005
Bush's Clark Kent, David Ignatius in The Washington Post, February 11, 2005
Official bio

Other Key Aides

Claude A. Allen
Domestic policy adviser
Allen's most recent job before coming to the White House was as deputy secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. His first job in politics was working for former Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) - an unusual choice for an African-American. Bush nominated Allen to a seat on the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in 2003, but Democrats blocked his nomination.
White House adviser is loathed by some, but adored by others, Knight Ridder Newspapers, May 16, 2005
Bush's Domestic Adviser Is 'a Jack of All Trades', Washington Post, March 29, 2005
Official Bio


Nicolle Devenish
Communications director
After great success as chief spokesman for Bush's re-election campaign, the 33-year-old Devenish was hired as the White House's chief message communicator in January. Devenish was famously fired from a previous job, a long time ago, for being too cozy with reporters. But that's no longer a danger.
New Aide Aims to Defrost the Press Room, New York Times, Jan. 10, 2005
Californian gets out the White House message, Sacramento Bee, March 6, 2005
Official Bio

Joseph Hagin
Deputy chief of staff
Date of birth: January 6, 1956
A former vice president at Chiquita Brands International, Hagin is in charge of the daily operations of the White House. He was deputy campaign manager in George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign.
When the President Needs Someone He Can Trust, He Turns to Big Joe, Cincinnati Enquirer, Jan. 20, 2003

Allan Hubbard
National Economic Council director
Running Bush's National Economic Council is a particularly demanding job. But Hubbard, the third person to hold that position, is an old Bush friend and fundraiser. He went to Harvard Business School with Bush and raised more than $300,000 for Bush's presidential campaigns. The president of Indianapolis-based E&A Industries, Hubbard built a fortune making and selling Car Brite car wax. During the George H.W. Bush administration, he worked for Vice President Dan Quayle on his deregulatory campaign.
Bush Picks Supporter as Economic Council Chief, Washington Post, January 11, 2005
Bush Names Longtime Friend to Head Economic Council, New York Times, January 11, 2005
Bush Pioneer Profile, washingtonpost.com
Official Bio

I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby
Vice President Cheney's chief of staff
Sometimes called "Dick Cheney's Dick Cheney," Libby is an important foreign policy adviser inside the White House. He's also the author of a highly-praised novel, "The Apprentice".
Interview with Larry King, CNN, February 16, 2002
Official Bio

Scott McClellan
Press secretary
The second most public face of the White House, Scott McClellan's job is to deliver the president's predetermined message to a room full of reporters who are often looking for something else. As time has passed - McClellan took over from Ari Fleischer in the summer of 2003 - he has gotten less and less subtle about simply repeating his talking points over again. Tensions sometimes run high when McClellan is fending off frustrated reporters trying to knock him off message. But pretty much every time, it's the guy with the podium who wins. McClellan's family is a political powerhouse; his brother, Mark McClellan, is the administrator of Medicare and Medicaid, and their mother is Texas Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who is running for governor.
Blogger Hits the Wall, washingtonpostcom, April 5, 2005
Official Bio
Press Briefings

Harriet Miers
White House counsel
Date of birth: August 10, 1945

Miers was Bush's personal and campaign attorney back in Texas, where he also appointed her to head the Texas Lottery Commission. At the White House, she has been promoted twice, from staff secretary to deputy chief of staff for policy, and then to legal counsel. Bush once called her as a "pit bull in size 6 shoes."
Quiet but Ambitious White House Counsel Makes Life of Law, Washington Post, June 21, 2005
Miers' trek: from council to counsel, Dallas Morning News, March 3, 2005
Bush Promotes Miers From Staff to Counsel; Aide Lauded for Integrity, Intelligence, Washington Post, November 18, 2004
Official Bio

Candida "Candi" Wolff
Chief lobbyist
Date of birth: June 9, 1964
A former Cheney aide, Wolff spent a year on K Street as a corporate lobbyist before heading back to the White House to lead the president's uphill legislative charge.
Official Bio


Useful Background Information:
Who's Who in the White House
West Wing Floor Plan
White House Staff List and Salaries
White House Correspondents




Who's in Charge? Karl Rove!

By Dan Froomkin
Special to washingtonpost.com
Thursday, September 15, 2005; 12:00 PM

All you really need to know about the White House's post-Katrina strategy -- and Bush's carefully choreographed address on national television tonight -- is this little tidbit from the ninth paragraph of Elisabeth Bumiller and Richard W. Stevenson's story in the New York Times this morning:

"Republicans said Karl Rove, the White House deputy chief of staff and Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, was in charge of the reconstruction effort."

Rove's leadership role suggests quite strikingly that any and all White House decisions and pronouncements regarding the recovery from the storm are being made with their political consequences as the primary consideration. More specifically: With an eye toward increasing the likelihood of Republican political victories in the future, pursuing long-cherished conservative goals, and bolstering Bush's image.

That is Rove's hallmark.

Rove, Bush's long-time political adviser and the "architect" of Bush's ascendancy, was rewarded after the 2004 election with a position at the White House with overt policy responsibilities. But whereas in some previous White Houses, governance took precedence over campaigning once the election was safely over, Rove has shown no sign of ever putting policy goals above political ones. (See my Rove profile.)

Tonight's speech promises two classic features of the Rove approach.

Bush will take advantage of powerful imagery -- the Associated Press reports the speech will be held in historic Jackson Square, with the famous St. Louis Cathedral as a backdrop -- and he won't risk having anyone around who might disagree with him or ask an impertinent question. In fact, the AP says, there won't be a live audience at all. (And even the journalists covering the event are being told they won't be allowed to stray from their press vans.)

As for the speech itself, it will inevitably seek to answer any naysaying about Bush by recasting him in the heroic, leadership role he played after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks -- while advocating a range of measures that are dear to the conservative political agenda.

It will, on the other hand, feature one very unRovian tactic. Typically, it is the Democrats who are blamed for wanting to solve problems by throwing money at them. But tonight, Bush will be the one throwing the money around.

Will it work? Rove has an astonishing track record of success. But at the same time, Bush finds himself today a deeply unpopular president according to the opinion polls, particularly damaged by his lackluster response to the protracted, televised suffering in New Orleans.

And Rove himself has not been at his best of late. Unlike many of Bush's advisers, who have plausible deniability for his initial under-reaction because they weren't with him on vacation, Rove was tagging along with the president, blithely touring the West Coast even as the Gulf Coast drowned. Rove is haunted by the possibility of indictment by a federal grand jury investigating the leak of a CIA agent. And according to Time magazine, he was briefly hospitalized last week with painful kidney stones.

Even many of the president's traditional allies say Bush -- and by extension, Rove -- have been off their political game. We'll know better by tomorrow morning whether that continues to be the case.


借中國威脅論 爭取民主?

伍瑞瑜
2005-09-07

曾 慶紅即將訪港,誠心相信民主發展有利中港社會穩定的中間人士,憑什麼向 中央要求加快香港民主步伐?在中國威脅論熱潮下,《經濟學人》(Economist)兩篇將胡錦濤稱為 conservativeauthoritarian(保守威權主義者)的報道,以及《金融時報》(FinancialTimes)一篇指摘中國崛起分化 亞洲的評論,不知會否被用作借題發揮?

上周《經濟學人》刊出兩篇專題報道,指胡錦濤的意識形態十分保守,更發起「保先」運動(藉學習及檢討「保持共產黨員先進性」,提高黨性)、加強打壓知識分子、指蘇聯的失敗是「新自由主義」的禍害、要求國企改革以馬克思主義為原則等。

另一報道又指出,中國對開放部分新聞自由十分後悔,於是再次加強監控,明令禁止「異地監督」(一個省的傳媒,避免挑戰本省領導,對本省負面新聞甚少報道, 但對外省的卻積極報道),又發生程翔及美國《紐約時報》北京辦事處助理趙岩被捕等事件,甚至香港《蘋果日報》投訴被抽廣告也入了胡錦濤數。

在國際輿論上,胡溫新政蜜月期早已完結,上述內容早已散見歐美各大媒體,但在胡錦濤原定訪美之際(如今訪問已押後)卻被舊事重提。如果民主派向中央游說,適度增加香港及內地的民主人權,這種「妖魔化」言論也許會減少,內地會否聽得入耳?

獨裁統治 獨裁對待鄰邦?

此外,曾任美國共和黨參議員麥凱恩(JohnMcCain)政策顧問的DanielTwining,8月22日亦在《金融時報》撰文,指摘中國的崛起,只 會分化亞洲。麥凱恩是著名強硬派政客,曾公開表示美國要拉攏其他亞洲國家制衡中國,2000年曾與布殊競逐總統提名,DanielTwining當時出任 其外交政策顧問及演辭撰稿人。

文章指出,中國軍力及經濟力量不斷增強,區內政治影響不斷膨脹,令亞洲各國起疑心,泰國、菲律賓、新加坡、印尼及澳洲均加強與美國的聯繫,以平衡中國的影 響力。文章又指中國沒有民主選舉,每次政權轉移都是黑箱作業,雖然估計中國會在50年後成為全球最大經濟體,但難以令人相信未來50年中國政局都能保持穩 定。

最後,文章指出若中國沒有民主,難以令亞洲各國心服口服真心支持中國成為區內領導,因為若中國沒有民主,以獨裁統治國民,拒絕尊重國民人權法治,難保中國會在崛起後,不會同樣以獨裁方式對待鄰國。

上述論據你也許不同意,但卻代表了不少西方人士所想,相信不少負責貿易談判的中方官員,都親身感受到這股日益增加的反華壓力。如果香港能與中方溝通的中間 人士,向中方說明,若對香港政改採取稍為寬鬆的態度,也許可以紓緩這股中國威脅論,對中國「和平崛起」反會有幫助,內地的看法會如何?

中共害怕公民社會

林和立
蘋果日報

最 近北京接二連三打壓甚至無理拘留「維權」律師,使人對胡錦濤與溫家寶有關推崇法治與依法治國的承諾十分懷疑;另外,胡總以「防止和平演變」與「顏色革命」 為由,在未來一兩年間還會加大力氣監控和壓抑大陸「公民社會」的活躍分子,包括非政府組織(NGO)、專業團體、以及和歐美有聯繫的社團與民間學術研究單 位等等。

按 照西方有關民主發展進程的論述,一 個國家發展到擁有一定規模的中產階級,尤其是假如勇於捍?社會公義的NGO和專業團體大量湧現的話,此國家有望在中、短期孕育出起碼的民主機制。中國共產 黨一直對公民社會步步為營,視為可能挑戰一黨專政的洪水猛獸。而負責登記非官方社團與其他NGO單位的民政部,對私人團體素來限制多多。

整頓社會團體

最近北京又發放了更嚴厲的法規,進一步整頓和控制非附屬於黨政部門的社團和研究機構,同時情治部門開始二十四小時監控某些與西方、尤其是與美國有交往的NGO。但隨?經濟與教育水平的提升,愈來愈多知識分子與專業人士表現出強烈的正義感與回饋弱勢團體的決心。

在 公民社會中走在最前線的,是一批有理想與無畏精神的律師。許多在九十年代法學院畢業的律師,已成為維護低下層工人、農民、和弱勢民營資本家的「英雄」。新 世紀開始以來,普羅大眾慘被「新權貴階層」、即官商勾結的暴發戶集團欺負與魚肉的最常見例子,是城市與農村居民被財雄勢大的發展商迫遷出舊房子和農地,但 得不到應有的賠償。

另外,隨?能源價格屢創新高,新權貴集團在全國各地大量開發石油、煤礦與水電,受影響地區的老百姓不止分享不到甜頭,很多時還要搬離家園,不少農民更被迫淪為城市的黑市勞工。

大舉拘捕律師

今 年最轟烈的維權事件,要算赤手空拳面對國家機器的朱久虎律師。他就是轟動海內外的陝北油田案的主角之一。自九十年代中期,一千多個陝西民營企業,獲陝西政 府與相關的國家油公司批准開採當地的石油與天然氣。但到了二○○三年中,由於油價暴漲,中央決定收回私營油公司的勘採權。當時,已有大概六萬多名「私營老 闆」投放了七十多億元資產,但有關部門只同意給他們十多億元的賠償。投資者曾多次上訪北京,但毫無結果。

朱 久虎是國內著名的維權律師,他去年中接過此官司後,曾請多位有影響力的法律、經濟與能源專家到陝北考查,準備與陝西和中央部門對簿法庭。但今年五月,朱竟 被公安以「非法集會」等莫須有罪名拘捕;和朱一齊工作的律師也受到恐嚇。更離譜的是,帶頭爭取合理補償的好幾個老闆與投資者也被追捕,導致原告大逃亡的司 法醜聞。到目前為止,內地已有近百著名律師與法學教授連署,要求中央部門馬上放人和舉行公平的審訊。

據 外國人權組織估計,過去幾年被公安與安全部門警告、監視甚至拘留的護法維權律師與法學教師超過一百位。除了替異議人士打官司的法律人士外,受迫害的還包括 代表被迫遷居民討公道的律師。後者當中最有名的,是揭露「上海首富」周正毅與當地貪官勾結、非法炒賣地皮的正義律師鄭恩寵。鄭因得罪上海權貴,在二○○三 年竟被判三年徒刑,罪名是「洩露國家機密」。

替 鄭 辯護的另一位人權律師郭國汀也不斷受到公安滋擾。據說○三年胡溫處理周案時,曾受到「上海幫」的阻礙,所以後來周只輕判三年了事。有可能因為上海幫頭頭江 澤民已於去年九月全退,所以最近北京就重判和「周首富」關係密切的前中國銀行大班劉金寶「死緩」。但問題是,甚麼時候才可以平反鄭律師的冤案?

壓抑維權組織

不幸的是,尤其是最近好幾個中亞國家爆發了以各種顏色命名的「人民權力革命」後,胡總和黨內高層對催化民主的公民社會組織,包括善於據法力爭的維權律師與律師團體,實在怕得要命。

據 西方外交界消息,在吉爾吉斯坦三月的「鬱金香革命」後,中共領導曾派十多個考查團,到曾經發生過民主運動的中亞與前蘇聯國家,目的是要找出方法避免類似的 「變天」在中國發生。胡總顧問的建議是,一定要壓抑NGO、維權組織、和其他公民社會單位的發展,不然這些民主政治前哨兵在「海外反華敵對分子」的煽動與 秘密援助下,很可能會顛覆中共的政權。

可悲的是,第四代領導人在誓死捍?中共「長治久安」這方面,和以前所謂保守派老同志差不了多少:在確保政權的大前提下,抽象的法律、人權問題變得太微不足道了!

小泉繼續鷹派外交

蘋果日報
林和立 2005-09-16

小 泉純一郎領導的自民黨在九一一國會選舉中大勝,被認為是日本政治的分水嶺。但北京的反應一如所料的冷淡,因為小泉很可能會挾民意而在外交,尤其是對中國和 周邊國家方面,採取更強硬的政策。當選晚上,小泉在被問到會否參拜靖國神社時,只例牌地說會做出「審慎而適當」的判斷。

無可置疑,這次選舉的議題雖然是國內改革問題,而不是外交,但選民的支援,會促使小泉更果斷地推行他一貫的「鷹派」國防與外事政策。

改革之路未見暢通

小 泉與他的主要內閣成員以及自民黨重量級人物,包括分管外交與國防的町村信孝與大野功統,以至自民黨前幹事長安倍晉三都被稱為強硬派,主張把日本蛻變為一個 不受「和平憲法」約束的「正常國家」。他們強烈希望把日本從一個「準經濟超級大國」,拓展為一個兼為世界一流的軍事與外交強國。

小泉內閣在過去一年,已啟動修改憲法與擴充自?隊的工作;東京又大力拉攏美國,希望通過與美國協防,防止中國崛起或至少減慢中國坐大的速度。在國際層面,則極力爭取成為聯合國安理會的常任國,與美、英、法、俄和中國平起平坐。

這 次選舉的重點,雖說是日本龐大的郵政系統改革,以至整個經濟私有化問題。但自民黨頭頭都知道,小泉雖然贏了此一役,但正因為郵政系統和其他國有或半國有企 業與日本政客︱︱和他們的選區︱︱都有千絲萬縷的利益關係;要大刀闊斧改革談何容易。小泉這次的「世紀政治豪賭」雖然勝出,但並不表示其改革之路會很暢 通。的確,小泉前幾個月在國會提出的郵政修改方案,已比他原先強調私有化的激烈方案溫和得多。

或與中國周旋到底

小 泉以改革經濟與官僚體制起家,但他在改革郵政等問題上還是遇到重重阻力;然則,十分關心個人「歷史地位」的小泉,可能會把國民注意力轉移到國家安全與外交 方面。假如小泉成功把日本提升為政治大國,他在國民心目中,還不失為戰後的傑出政治家。從這個角度看,東京今後與北京的摩擦可能會加劇。除了靖國神社與歷 史問題外,有關東海油與天然氣開採權的爭端已不斷升溫。

最近雙方已更頻繁地派先進的艦艇甚至潛艇到該區「示威」;小泉內閣在民意高漲的背景下,很可能自覺有政治本錢與中國周旋到底。

錯誤解讀小泉現象

這 次選舉的另一個關注點,是小泉的任期。小泉已多次表明他將按照慣例,只當五年的自民黨總裁;換句話說,明年九月,他便得辭去黨魁與首相的職務。但東京的政 界已開始討論,自民黨極缺乏有魅力的政客;而星期天的歷史性大捷,被廣泛形容是「小泉騷」、「小泉劇場」的功勞。目前已有耳語要求小泉起碼多幹兩年,以穩 住自民黨來之不易的大好形勢。當然,中國與亞洲地區包括韓國,是絕不願意小泉破例幹多過五年的。

平心而論,中國的日本專家一向缺乏對「小泉現象」的全面理解,尤其是不明白小泉深受選民支持的原因,以至過去一兩年,中南海的決策者對日本首相開重炮時,往往把一般日本民眾也得罪了;年中吳儀副總理臨時取消會見小泉便是一例。

新華社與其他官方媒體在評論日本大選時,指小泉狡猾地為「選民洗腦」,並且掌握了資訊時代譁眾取寵的伎倆,才「奇?」地獲勝。看來,北京需要先了解日本新一代政客與選民的背景與訴求,才可以有效地打擊日本右派以至軍國主義的復甦。

林和立﹕中國聯歐制美到此為止﹖


 【明報專訊】本月初中國與歐盟在北京舉行高峰會 兼慶祝雙方建交30年。總理溫家寶在會見歐盟輪值主席英國首相貝理雅時,表示有信心中歐之間可以進一步發展「全面戰略伙伴關係」。中歐高層簽了一份26項 的聯合聲明,同意在政治經貿、科技文化方面加強合作。但無可否認的是,以胡錦濤為首的第四代領導班子過去兩年多極力炮製的「聯歐制美」策略最近受到一定的 障礙與挑戰。

  畢竟中歐美微妙的三角關係在不斷變化。03年在反對布殊總統 攻打伊拉克時,法德兩大國曾經與中國跟俄國並肩抵制華盛頓的「單邊主義」。但到了今年,歐盟反美情緒已普遍減弱。尤其是去年歐盟擴充到25個成員國,而且 新加盟的大部分是曾經給蘇聯欺負甚至蹂躪的東歐小國,如波蘭、捷克等等。在蘇聯集團解體後,這些國家都接受了美國大量的經濟與軍事援助。可以說所謂「新歐 盟成員國」一般是親美的,而只有以法德為首的「舊歐盟」個別領導還希望與中國或俄國聯手來制衡華盛頓的「新霸權主義」。

  但從今年開始,法德的內外政策都發生巨變。首先是和布殊唱對台戲唱得最勁的法國總統希拉克在其選民於5月以大比數否決歐盟新憲法後,已變成跛腳鴨﹔72高 齡且身體欠佳的希拉克很可能一年內就要交班,而其繼承人人選中沒有一個像他這麼反美。但最關鍵的是本月18日的德國大選。一般民意調查顯示反對黨基督民主 聯盟可能獲勝,而其女黨魁默克爾(Merkel)有機會打敗希拉克的老友施羅德,成為德國第一任女總理。在東德長大的默克爾一直有親美傾向。

 歐盟反美情緒減弱

  總的來說,歐盟自從法國、荷蘭等國家否決了新憲法後,前路茫茫,非常缺乏新的凝聚力與動力。在諸如貿易與人權等問題,「舊歐洲」與「新歐洲」都有一定的分 歧。在對華關係方面,個別大國如法德等已很難支配整個歐盟對中國的政策。例如最近歐盟跟中國在紡織品配額發生摩擦,經濟水平較低的歐盟國家傾向比較強硬的 談判策略。而歐盟25個成員國經過自今年5月開始的一系列憲政危機後,已很難對北京最關注的專案——取消長達16年的對華軍事禁運——取得共識。

  的確,在北京做了大量游說工作——尤其是暗中承諾購買大宗歐洲軍火——之後,本來歐盟頭頭已決定在5月左右恢復對華售賣武器。因為當時最有機會做成大買賣 的大國,包括法、德、英、意等已經與中國取得默契。但北京沉不住氣,在3月通過了對台《反分裂法》,讓美國有藉口利用已經炒得很熱的「中國威脅論」來慫恿 歐盟,尤其是英國與前東歐集團的小國,投反對票。因為對華售武等大方案需要全體歐盟成員贊成才通過,現在此懸案不知要拖多久﹗

  同時,隨?中國沿海「世界工廠」的科技水平不斷提高,大陸許多科技含量較高的產品已對不少「中水平」歐盟國家,包括西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利等構成嚴峻威 脅。中國跟歐盟的貿易順差雖少於美國,但近年有擴大的勢頭。再加以極力反對中歐結盟的國家,如美國與日本等的推波助瀾,中國與個別,尤其是原屬蘇聯集團的 歐盟成員國的矛盾會有增無減。

 看來,以胡總為首的中共外事領導小組恐怕很難短期內圓「聯歐制美」的夢。

=============================================

聯俄反美日並非出路

蘋果日報 2005-08-16

忘記韜光養晦、先禮後兵,因為這是先兵後禮、信息與心理戰的時代。先是國 防大學朱成虎將軍聲稱,解放軍核導彈隨時可以把美國幾百個城市打個稀巴爛;這星期在山東半島與渤海灣的中俄世紀軍演,動的更是真格。矛頭自是美國、日本與 台灣──以至全世界懷疑中國有沒有足夠武力(包括俄製武器)保證她可以和平崛起的國家與地區。

林和立

對! 這就是二十一世紀有中國特色的辯證法:要證明中國有和平崛起的決心,北京得先耀武揚威、導彈大炮震天價響;等如中共歷來雖然信誓旦旦的說要和平統一台灣, 但打的卻是「反分裂法牌」、「模擬登陸解放牌」和這次比一九九六與二○○○年又進一步的「跨國演習牌」。據一向不缺幽默感的外交界的評語,這叫「此地無導 彈三百枚」!

炒熱「中國威脅論」

有 趣的是,以搞馬列毛辯證法與宣傳起家的軍委主席胡錦濤畫公仔畫出腸,在紀念二次大戰六十周年、宣揚「和平至上新思潮」的同時,發動輿論機器,在大陸與外 圍、包括香港的左報左刊,請大批軍事專家與御用國際時事評論員,以「揭密披露」、「解讀天機」的形式,點透綽號「和平使命2005」軍演的玄機和幕後。而 且,北京與莫斯科為了炮製最佳效果,還故作神秘,只邀請「上海合作組織」的成員與觀察員國家,包括新加盟的印度、巴基斯坦與伊朗的武官來實地觀摩。

老 實說,誰不知道這次動用過萬大軍和包括俄、中最先進的轟炸機、殲敵機、反潛艦、登陸艇、驅逐艦等裝備的「軍騷」的目的,是要恫嚇台灣與日本,和給點顏色 「美帝」看?而且胡總下一個大項目,就是以國家元首身份首次訪美,正好給美國「新保守主義集團」,和與布殊家族關係密切的軍工集團一個下馬威。但無論從中 國政治或國際戰略的角度看,這次神勇威猛的大騷,可能會引發不少問題。

首先,大軍演、尤其是這次排山倒海的宣傳攻勢,一定會使「中國威脅論」在美、日、台與亞洲不少地區更加膨脹。目前在華盛頓炒得最厲害的「反華」事件,正是中方的高科技特工與「特務公司」,如何竊取美國軍事與武器的情報。

勿輕視俄羅斯野心

胡總下月訪美主要目的之一,就是說服布殊總統放寬美國對華的高科技、包括可供軍事用途的裝備與技術出口。這次中俄超大型武器在渤海翻雲覆雨,只會給美國鷹派政客、尤其是「反華」的國會議員更多藉口不做中國的高科技生意,做成「雙輸」局面。

尤 有甚者,華盛頓更有藉口以《台灣關係法》中所謂「保護台灣」的條款為由,多賣武器給台北。「和平使命2005」另一個後遺症,就是歐盟對華售武禁令的取消 可能更遙遙無期。其實經過北京大力斡旋與大量購買法、德、英等國的產品,今年五、六月,布魯塞爾本來極有可能解除已有十六多年歷史,而且明顯過時的售武限 制;但北京在三月沉不住氣通過《反分裂國家法》,間接使一向親美的英國與波蘭等歐洲國家改變主意。

最 重要的是,這次頗出位的「有所作為」雖然可能取得阻嚇「美帝」與小日本之效,但俄羅斯黑熊又怎樣?究竟所謂聯俄反美日,真的符合中國的核心利益嗎?近代史 已說明,處心積慮吞併或分裂中國的,除了日本軍國主義者與「美帝」外,還有蘇聯與一心想恢復大蘇帝國、以普京為首的俄國「新保守新鷹派集團」。胡總為何與 普京這麼忘舊的攬頭攬頸?的確,中俄有不少共同地緣戰略利益;而且北京也甚依賴從俄羅斯進口的石油與天然氣。但北京有沒有考慮,為何莫斯科遲遲不表態把西 伯利亞的油管蓋到黑龍江的大慶,而不是鄰近日本的納霍德卡?北京當然應該理直氣壯地抗議小泉純一郎參拜靖國神社,但為何中共高層對俄羅斯侵佔的大概一百六 十萬平方公里的國土隻字不提;這些去如黃鶴的土地比釣魚台、甚至台灣大多少倍?

中國承擔演習開支

至 於此次世紀軍事大騷,獲益最多的,又是遠謀深算的莫斯科。俄國國力已大不如前,普京圖謀恢復大俄羅斯之夢,王牌差不多只剩下兩張:石油與龐大和還算國際一 流的軍工企業。很明顯,莫斯科參加這次「和平使命」演習的目的之一,就是借這個舉世矚目的場地,炫耀俄製的新一代武器,多做生意;而有資格觀摩這次俄軍 「路演」的上海合作國家成員,多是莫斯科的大客。但負責頭尾一個多星期演習開支的則是中國;光是山東半島地區因為戰機艦艇橫飛直撞而要讓路的民間經濟活 動,就以上億元人民幣計算。

當然,財大氣粗的北京領導層絕不在乎區區數億元。但更重要的是:中國當俄國的「全天候戰略夥伴」,又會獲得甚麼好處?便宜的石油?「又平又抵」的二十一世紀級俄製戰機、導彈與艦艇?

況 且大黑熊心中有數,在渤海灣耀武揚威後,北京從美國和歐盟購買武器的機會愈來愈少,而俄國「壟斷」中國軍火市場則更十拿九穩。在此「賣方市場」的條件下, 莫斯科將如以往一樣「吊起來賣」,以「國際慣例」的價格,多賣些八十年代中後期、頂多是九十年代初中期水平的武器給中國。而號稱「人民有知情權」的胡溫新 政,有沒有向全民交代這些影響深遠的外交國策?

布殊災後卸膊反擊五絕招

伍瑞瑜

 【明報專訊】風災過後,又是追尋死因追究責任的時候,矛頭直指牛仔總統,布殊亦知這次是其民望的重大挑戰,立即召集軍師迎戰。

  美國《紐約時報》繼在9月1日刊出Waiting for a Leader(等待領袖出現)的社評,狠批布殊領導無方後,於9月4日再刊出一篇專題「爆料」報道,指布殊在備受指摘後,立即與其兩名智囊羅夫(Karl Rove)及Dan Bartlett設計出一連串「絕招」,力圖減少事件對政府民望的傷害。

 這些「絕招」包括﹕

 1. 高官出巡﹕立即派遣左右手巡視災區,包括副總統切尼、國防部長拉姆斯菲爾德等,黑人國務卿賴斯更高呼「我也是黑人,政府怎會歧視黑人」。

 2. 先救災、後追究﹕高官接受訪問,避免談及上周的災情,盡量將話題轉向「政府目前在做什麼」。布殊及國土安全部長切爾夫科均強調﹕「將來總有機會作事後檢討,目前最重要的是救人。」

 3. 拒絕口水戰﹕官員不應再回應民主黨人的批評,布殊正處弱勢,政府不宜與其公開對罵,被公眾視為總愛糾纏於「口水戰」。

 4. 不具名回應﹕共和黨人應以「不具名」方式回應事件,以免影響白宮的公眾形象。

 5. 推卸責任﹕強調救災是地方官員的責任,國土安全部長切爾夫科對記者強調,根據法例,負責撤走市民及救災的最重要決策者,是州及市地方官員,中央政府只是負責提供協助。剛巧新奧爾良市及路易斯安那州的主要官員均是民主黨人。

 推卸責任 賴地方官員

 報道說,風災發生時,布殊政府各要員均出外度假,一時間無人領軍。布殊及其政治顧問羅夫正在德州牧場,副總統切尼在懷俄明州牧場,布殊的傳媒主任Nicolle Devenish正於希臘舉行婚禮,不少布殊的政治顧問都有出席,國務卿賴斯更被發現身在紐約購物。

 事件惡化後,布殊及其心腹羅夫立即接掌事件,《紐約時報》這篇報道便指出,這個「民望災難應變」計劃,處處都是羅夫的影子。到底這個羅夫是誰﹖

 羅夫被指擅長抹黑政治(smear politics),94年開始替布殊打選戰,贏得得州州長一職。2000年及04年總統選舉均是布殊重要軍師,最近被指涉嫌蓄意泄露一名中情局女特工身分,該特工任職外交官的丈夫,曾抨擊華府誇大伊拉克擁有大殺傷力武器的情報。

 每逢特區出現天災人禍,總有官員辯護說,「現在不是追究責任的時候」、「現時最重要是救人為先」、「具體執行不是政府總部的責任」等,風災過後的布殊政府,以同一招數應付公眾質疑。特區政府的慘痛教訓,相信日理萬機的布殊無暇參透了。


Friday, September 16, 2005

Amid the Ruins, a President Tries to Reconstruct His Image, Too

New York Times, September 16, 2005

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - George W. Bush, whose standing for the last four years has rested primarily on issues of war and peace, introduced himself to the nation on Thursday night in an unfamiliar and somewhat uncomfortable new role: domestic president.

The violence of Hurricane Katrina and his faltering response to it have left to Mr. Bush the task not just of physically rebuilding a swath of the United States, but also of addressing issues like poverty and racial inequality that were exposed in such raw form by the storm.

The challenge would be immense for any president, but is especially so for Mr. Bush. He is scrambling to assure a shaken, angry nation not only that is he up to the task but also that he understands how much it disturbed Americans to see their fellow citizens suffering and their government responding so ineffectually.

So for nearly 30 minutes, he stood in a largely lifeless New Orleans and, to recast his presidency in response to one of the nation's most devastating disasters, sought to show that he understands the suffering. He spoke of housing and health care and job training. He reached with rhetorical confidence for the uplifting theme that out of tragedy can emerge a better society, and he groped for what he lost in the wind and water more than two weeks ago: his well-cultivated image as a strong leader.

It was not the president's most stirring speech, but it conveyed a sense of command far more than his off-key efforts in the days immediately after the storm, when he often seemed more interested in bucking up government officials than in addressing the dire situation confronting hundreds of thousands of displaced and desperate people.

But if the speech helped him clear his first hurdle by projecting the aura of a president at the controls, it probably did not, by itself, get him over a second: his need to erase or at least blur the image of a White House that was unresponsive to the plight of some of the country's most vulnerable citizens and failed to manage the government competently.

Whether he can put a floor under his falling poll numbers, restore his political authority and move ahead with his agenda will determine not just the course of his second term but the strength of his party, which by virtue of having controlled both the White House and the Congress for more than five years has trouble credibly pinning the blame elsewhere.

"He was giving a speech as if the nation were disheartened and worried and had lost its spirit, but that's not what people were thinking," said Mickey Edwards, a former Republican congressman from Oklahoma. "They were thinking, why did the government screw up?"

To those storm victims in need of immediate help and to those who face the continued upheaval of their lives for weeks or months or longer, he offered an expansive government safety net of specific programs, from paying the costs of reuniting families to a commitment to moving everyone out of shelters into housing by mid-October. Doing so marked a distinct shift for a president whose perceived hostility or indifference to government's role in social welfare programs - manifested in budgets that have sought to cut such programs or curtail them - has long been a flash point in his relationship with poor and minority voters.

But if this was big government, it was at least in part on Mr. Bush's ideological terms: federal reimbursement to allow displaced students to attend private and parochial schools, tax-free business zones, a call for charitable and religious groups to continue with relief work. Having no choice but to open the fiscal floodgates, he sought to reassure nervous conservatives that he would guard against fraud and waste.

When it came to the issues hardest to address and most in need of sustained commitment, new ideas and risk-taking leadership - the gap between rich and poor, its causes and consequences, its racial components - he was less effective.

"We have a duty to confront this poverty with bold action," he said.

Yet he spoke of "deep, persistent poverty" as something the nation had seen on television rather than as a condition that many citizens had been living in for generations. He defined the problem as regional rather than national in scope, and offered only regional rather than national solutions.

"The reconstruction, massive as it is, is really the easy part," said Bruce Reed, president of the Democratic Leadership Council, an organization of centrist Democrats. "Rebuilding confidence, especially among the poor and vulnerable, is going to be extraordinarily difficult."

In dealing with the more concrete aspects of the job ahead, Mr. Bush slipped comfortably into the language that he has used as commander in chief to comfort and exhort the nation as it has waged war, hailing those Americans who have "served and sacrificed" and vowing that the government "will stay as long as it takes" to get the job done, an echo, almost word for word, of his formulation for how long the United States will remain in Iraq.

The president forthrightly linked the failures in response to the storm to a vulnerability to a terrorist attack and said he wanted to know "all the facts" about what had gone wrong.

Mr. Bush called for unity in tackling the problems. But with only a camera before him, and New Orleans silent around him, he could draw no strength or self-assurance from the cheers of a united nation, as he did when he addressed a joint session of Congress nine days after the Sept. 11 attacks. Not only did his own stagecraft leave him alone in the spotlight, but whatever good will flowed to him across the aisle in those moments after the terrorist attacks is long gone, a victim of a polarized political culture that he did not create but to which he has often contributed.

For Mr. Bush, this was a moment for the country to turn away from what he and his aides have dismissively labeled "the blame game" toward a hopeful vision of a rebuilt Gulf Coast and a smarter government. But it is not yet clear that his performance will stanch the political wounds he has suffered or ensure that he can avoid being hobbled through his second term, not just by what he lost in the faltering response to Hurricane Katrina but by the rising death toll in Iraq, sky-high energy prices and worrisome deficits.

Some of the Uprooted Won't Go Home Again


Poll: Victims of Katrina

Last weekend, a team of interviewers directed by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health conducted the first poll of New Orleans evacuees living in Houston emergency shelters. The survey's goal: to capture the attitudes, experiences and plans of those hit hard by the storm.

Full Survey

By Richard Morin and Lisa Rein
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 16, 2005; A01

HOUSTON, Sept. 15 -- Fewer than half of all New Orleans evacuees living in emergency shelters here said they will move back home, while two-thirds of those who want to relocate planned to settle permanently in the Houston area, according to a survey by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and the Harvard School of Public Health.

The wide-ranging poll found that these survivors of Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath remain physically and emotionally battered but unbroken. They praised God and the U.S. Coast Guard for saving them, but two weeks after the storm, nearly half still sought word about missing loved ones or close friends who may not have been as lucky.

Most already know they have no home left to return to. The overwhelming majority lack insurance to cover their losses. Few have bank checking accounts, savings accounts or credit cards that work. Still, nearly nine in 10 said they were "hopeful" about the future. And while half said they felt depressed about what lies ahead, just a third said they were afraid.

"I'm setting goals for myself, and I'm ready to conquer them," said Lakisha Morris, 30, who was plucked from her roof and spent two nights outdoors on an interstate highway before boarding a bus for Houston. She said she wants to start her own business in this city, possibly day care for the children of fellow evacuees.

The poll vividly documents the immediate and dramatic changes that Hurricane Katrina has brought to two major American cities. It also suggests that what may be occurring is a massive -- and, perhaps, permanent -- transfer of a block of poor people from one city to another. That may have social, economic and political consequences that will be felt for decades, if not generations, in both communities.

Forty-three percent of these evacuees planned to return to New Orleans, the survey found. But just as many -- 44 percent -- said they will settle somewhere else, while the remainder were unsure. Many of those who were planning to return said they will be looking to buy or rent somewhere other than where they lived. Overall, only one in four said they plan to move back into their old homes, the poll found.

Some cannot wait. "Every morning I wake up and pray for them to say we can go back to New Orleans," said Lynette Toca, 26, a homemaker with two young sons who had never been outside her city before they drove to Houston the Saturday before the hurricane swept through on Aug. 29.

According to the poll, most of those who did not plan to go back to New Orleans are already living in their new hometown. Fully two in three of the 44 percent who will not return said they plan to permanently relocate in the Houston area, the city that now is home to about 125,000 New Orleans evacuees.

A total of 680 randomly selected evacuees living temporarily in the Astrodome, Reliant Center and George R. Brown Convention Center, as well as five Red Cross shelters in the Houston area, were interviewed Sept. 10 to 12 for this Post-Kaiser-Harvard survey. More than 8,000 evacuees were living in these facilities and awaiting transfer to other housing when the interviewing was conducted.

More than nine in 10 of these evacuees said they were residents of New Orleans, while the remainder said they were from the surrounding area or elsewhere in Louisiana. The margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus four percentage points. Potential differences between these evacuees and those not living in shelters or those who lived elsewhere in the affected Gulf Coast region make it impossible to conclude that these results accurately reflect the views of all Gulf Coast residents displaced by Katrina.

The Post-Kaiser-Harvard poll suggests these evacuees will start their lives with virtually nothing. Seven in 10 currently do not have a savings or checking account. Just as many have no usable credit cards.

Missing, too, from their lives are the vital support networks of relatives and friends that have temporarily absorbed the bulk of those who fled the Gulf Coast storm zone: Eight in 10 said they have no one that they can stay with until they get back on their feet.

The poll suggests that the story of these evacuees is not merely about how little they were left with -- it is also about how fragile their lives were even before the storm hit. Together, the findings suggest the long-term challenges posed by the evacuees to local and state governments already cutting back services to their neediest citizens.

According to the poll, six in 10 evacuees had family incomes of less than $20,000 last year. Half have children younger than 18. One in eight was unemployed when the storm hit. Seven in 10 said they have no insurance to cover their losses. Fully half have no health insurance. Four in 10 suffer from heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure or are physically disabled.

When illness or injury strike, they were twice as likely to say they had sought care from hospitals such as the New Orleans Charity Hospital than from either a family doctor or health clinic -- needs for costly services that now will be transferred to hospitals in the Houston area or wherever these evacuees eventually settle.

This survey suggests some of these emergency shelters may be forced to shelter evacuees for weeks and months, or perhaps longer. While half expected to be relocated to an apartment, house or with a volunteer family within a few days, one in five expected to be living in an emergency shelter for at least a few more weeks. Indeed, Houston officials said this week that they have delayed their goal of emptying the temporary shelters by this coming weekend, in part because so many of the remaining evacuees lack resources to set up households on their own.

The survey also provides disquieting clues as to why so many residents remained in New Orleans to face Hurricane Katrina despite orders to evacuate. A third of those who stayed said they never heard the mandatory order to evacuate issued by the mayor the day before the storm hit. Somewhat fewer -- 28 percent -- said they heard the order but did not understand what they were to do. Thirty-six percent acknowledged they heard the order, understood it but did not leave. In hindsight, 56 percent said they could have evacuated, while 42 percent said it was impossible.

Bad decisions, bad luck or sheer stubbornness kept many in town. More than a third said the single biggest reason they did not leave was that they thought the storm would not be as bad as it was, or they decided too late to flee. One in 10 simply did not want to leave. Slightly fewer stayed behind to protect their homes from damage or theft. A handful said they did not want to leave pets.

Angie Oneal, 44, a housekeeper from the Sixth Ward, heard the warnings to leave on her radio. But she stayed to protect her belongings.

"I said to myself, if we went through Bessie, I thought we could go through Katrina," Oneal said. "I thought it was just going to pass over." She worried about the new TV, computer and bedroom set she had just bought.

The days immediately after the storm but before they were evacuated to Houston were filled with terror, pain and uncertainty.

A third of the interviewees said they had been trapped in their homes and had to be rescued; four in 10 said they spent at least a day living outdoors on the street. Four in 10 were rescued by the Coast Guard, the National Guard, police officers or firefighters. Still, half said friends or neighbors helped them to safety (25 percent) or they managed to reach safe havens on their own (24 percent).

A majority said there was a time when they were without food or water. A third were trapped in the city without their prescription drugs. One in five managed to survive the storm, only to be threatened or assaulted by other survivors in the chaos that followed Katrina.

Religious faith has sustained the respondents through their worst days in New Orleans and now during their time in Houston. Eight in 10 said their faith was very important during the past two weeks. Remarkably, 81 percent said the ordeal has strengthened their belief, while only 4 percent said it weakened it.

"We say, God did this for a reason, to clean up the shootings and murders that have become New Orleans," said Dorothy Stukes, 54, a school security officer from Jefferson Parish who said she spent "four days of hell" in the Louisiana Superdome. "Ninety-five percent of us are good people, but now God is going to take care of those that are not."

While the hurricane drew most New Orleans evacuees closer to God, it further estranged many from their government and political leaders. Three-quarters agreed that the response was too slow "and there's no excuse." Seven in 10 disapproved of the way President Bush has handled the recovery effort. But majorities were also critical of Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco (58 percent) and New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin (53 percent). Overall, six in 10 said the initially sluggish government response has made them feel that "government doesn't care" about people like them, according to the poll.

A Bid to Repair a Presidency


By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, September 16, 2005; Page A01

The main text of President Bush's nationally televised address last night was the rebuilding of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, but the clear subtext was the rebuilding of a presidency that is now at its lowest point ever, confronted by huge and simultaneous challenges at home and abroad -- and facing a country divided along partisan and racial lines.

Hurricane Katrina struck at the core of Bush's presidency by undermining the central assertion of his reelection campaign, that he was a strong and decisive leader who could keep the country safe in a crisis. Never again will the White House be able to point to his often-praised performance after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, without skeptics recalling the fumbling and slow-off-the-mark response of his administration after the hurricane and the flooding in New Orleans.



President Bush salutes Vice Admiral Thad Allen upon his arrival on the USS Iwo Jima in New Orleans. Also greeting Bush are, from left, Army Lt. Gen. Russel L. Honore, acting FEMA Director R. David Paulison and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.
President Bush salutes Vice Admiral Thad Allen upon his arrival on the USS Iwo Jima in New Orleans. Also greeting Bush are, from left, Army Lt. Gen. Russel L. Honore, acting FEMA Director R. David Paulison and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. (By Susan Walsh -- Associated Press)

His response to these criticisms last night was a speech largely shorn of soaring rhetoric and stirring turns of phrase of the kind that marked his efforts to rally the country after the terrorist attacks. Instead, as if recognizing that his own road back will be one marked by steady but small steps, he spoke with workmanlike focus, spelling out the details of what has been done and will be done to help those displaced by the storm.

Katrina has added an enormous new burden to a presidency already bending under the stresses of public dissatisfaction with Bush's policies in Iraq and growing anger over rising gas prices. Bush's objective last night was to set out a strategy and commitment for recovery along the Gulf Coast. But the critical question is whether the damage will limit his ability to govern effectively in the remaining 40 months of his presidency and whether he will successfully rebuild the Gulf Coast and Iraq, let alone win approval for other major initiatives on taxes and Social Security.

In again taking responsibility for the federal government's failures, Bush signaled last night that the White House has decided not to contest the widespread perceptions that his administration failed in the early days of the crisis. By embracing those criticisms, they hope to make the issue a sideshow that will play out sometime in the future. Instead, after a halting start, the White House appears intently focused on demonstrating the president's capacity to manage the huge rebuilding effort ahead.

Bush's advisers believe that, despite the partisan finger-pointing over what happened, most Americans are not looking back and will judge the president on what happens going forward. But as Iraq has shown over the past two years, the facts on the ground shape public confidence in the president more than words or promises.

There is nothing certain about the success he hopes to demonstrate. The rebuilding at Ground Zero in New York has taken four years, and although the work in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast will begin almost immediately, the scope of the reconstruction virtually guarantees debates and delays that could sap public patience. Already there are signs of a brewing battle between business and government elites and organizers working with those displaced over whose voices will be heard in shaping the reconstruction.

Second-term slumps hit every reelected president, but often they come later than this one. Bush has little time to waste to rejuvenate his governing capacity, given the reality that lame-duck status awaits him in the not-too-distant future. But just as it will take time to rebuild New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, it may take many months for Bush to rebound from what now troubles his presidency. Given the added burdens of Iraq and the economy, the president's road to recovery "will be longer and more difficult," said Ross K. Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University.

The road back will also be contentious. Republicans and Democrats are at swords' points over who should investigate what happened -- a congressional committee as the GOP favors or an independent investigation proposed by the Democrats.

The president also may face opposition to his proposal to give the federal government and the U.S. military greater authority in a time of such disaster. There will be no hesitancy on either side to spend what it takes to rebuild -- Bush last night envisioned one of the largest reconstruction efforts in history -- but already sharp differences are emerging over the policies that animate that rebuilding.

The policies Bush outlined last night bear the distinctive stamp of a conservative president, a hallmark of an executive who has never shrunk from seeking to implement a right-leaning agenda even in the face of a divided country. They are long on tax relief and business grants and loans, and focused on entrepreneurial ideas. Bush already has drawn fire from Democrats for suspending the law that requires contractors to pay prevailing wages on federal projects in the regions, and there will be a battle over the proposal to provide private and parochial school vouchers to children of displaced families.

At other points in his presidency, Bush was strong enough to intimidate and often defeat his Democratic opponents. Although the Democrats remain relatively weak, Bush's own problems have emboldened them to challenge him at every turn and to believe they are better equipped to deal with the challenges in housing, education, health care and urban poverty that the hurricane and flooding have produced. Competing visions of how the federal government should respond will produce a vigorous debate -- far from the united response to 9/11.

The public appears to have little patience with partisan bickering right now, which complicates the Democrats' effort to challenge Bush, but every recent poll indicates the public knows who controls both the White House and the Congress, and Republicans likely will pay a greater price in next year's midterm elections for any perceived failures by Bush or the federal government.

Among the most worrisome elements of the aftermath of Katrina to the administration is the vast racial divide that has opened up over the federal government's response, with an overwhelming majority of African Americans believing the slow reaction was racially motivated and a similarly large majority of whites saying race was not the reason.

Bush and his advisers have denied there was any racial motivation in the government's response, but they know there will be a continuing political cost if they do not turn those perceptions around. The racial gulf threatens not only the administration's hope of slowly attracting more black support at the polls, but also the fabric of an already divided society. "It is something that all leaders across the country need to engage in, and this president will," said a senior administration official.

The president directly addressed the racial divide last night, noting that the Gulf Coast is afflicted with "deep, persistent poverty" and saying that poverty "has roots in a history of racial discrimination, which has cut off generations from the opportunity of America." He pledged bold action to "rise above the legacy of inequality."

For those who doubt Bush's ability to manage multiple challenges, administration officials would point to his nomination of Judge John G. Roberts Jr. as the next chief justice of the United States, which appears to be moving easily through the Senate.

But what confronts him in the Gulf Coast and Iraq is far more complex. His speech last night was only the beginning of the effort to repair his storm-damaged presidency. He has proved in the past his commitment to stay the course once he sets it. The question is whether, in his weakened condition, he can continue to persuade the country to follow.

U.S. Renews Push on China's Yuan


Officials Say Beijing's Vow
Of Flexibility in Currency
Has Shown Paltry Results

By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 16, 2005; Page A2

WASHINGTON – The Bush administration is turning up the heat on Beijing to allow the Chinese yuan to rise against the dollar, reigniting an economic dispute that had appeared settled.

Treasury Department officials are disappointed that China's eight-week-old promise to let the yuan move with market forces has resulted in only a tiny increase in its exchange value. They warn that Beijing is courting a backlash from U.S. lawmakers who say China's undervalued currency is robbing American companies of business and American workers of jobs.

Treasury Secretary John Snow has invited the Chinese finance minister, Jin Renqing, to meet during a gathering in Washington on Sept. 23-24 of senior economic officials from the Group of Seven major industrialized nations. The Chinese have indicated they plan to attend, but haven't yet formally accepted.

"The secretary will emphasize the need for the Chinese to demonstrate that the regime they've put in place will allow for greater flexibility in the yuan," said a Treasury official. In essence, Mr. Snow plans to tell the Chinese that it's not enough to say that the yuan can rise; they must also allow it to do so in a significant way.

"There has to be movement," the official said, although the administration doesn't have a specific percentage figure in mind.

The yuan had been fixed at about 8.3 to the dollar for more than a decade when Chinese officials, facing intense U.S. and European pressure, announced on July 21 that the currency would be immediately revalued by 2.1% and allowed to move in a way that would reflect the dictates of supply and demand. Since then, however, the yuan has barely budged and the currency has climbed a total of just 2.37% since the announcement.

In public, Treasury officials diplomatically say they understand the Chinese need time to implement the new system. "We have been very supportive of the reforming of the exchange-rate regime, but implied in that support is taking them at their word that over time they'll achieve greater flexibility and an exchange rate that increasingly reflects underlying supply and demand," Timothy Adams, Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs, said in an interview. "We expect that to occur."

[Chart]

Congressional actions -- both past and prospective -- leave little time for patience. The Treasury Department is due to release on Oct. 15 a biannual report to Congress on international currencies, and Mr. Snow promised months ago that unless China implemented significant reforms the fall report would "likely" cite China for manipulating its currency to gain an edge in international trade. That would trigger a legal requirement that the U.S. initiate formal negotiations with China over the currency question.

Mr. Snow is scheduled to travel to China in mid-October, and Treasury is likely to delay release of the report until after his return, Mr. Adams said.

The renewal of the confrontation comes at a time of tension in a spectrum of U.S.-China issues, from textile trade to copyright piracy to Chinese bids for American companies. In a meeting in New York this week, Chinese President Hu Jintao told President Bush that he would address U.S. concerns about its $162 billion trade deficit with China and about Chinese intellectual-property violations, according to Mike Green, the White House China expert.

Mr. Bush, who plans to visit China in November, also raised with Mr. Hu concerns about the yuan. "It's in China's long-term economic interests and the world's economic interest for China to make further moves toward a flexible and market-oriented exchange rate," Mr. Green told reporters after the two leaders met.

While monetary authorities rarely announce currency moves in advance, the Chinese appear to be signaling that they don't plan another revaluation soon. Yu Yongding, a member of the monetary policy-making committee of the People's Bank of China, told Dow Jones Newswires recently that the Chinese authorities "need another, say, four or five months" to evaluate the new currency regime before making any big moves.

"I don't know if there will be further revaluation in the short term," said Mr. Yu. "The authorities need time to observe the effect of the small revaluation on economic growth that itself is in the process of changing even without the revaluation."

Many U.S. manufacturers, represented by groups like the National Association of Manufacturers, are pressing their representatives in Washington to take stronger action against China. "We are very disappointed in the way the Chinese have actually put their new regime to use," said Frank Vargo, NAM's vice president for international economic affairs. "It looks a lot like the old regime, except 2% up, which is trivial."

At least two anti-China bills are looming in Congress. One, sponsored by Sens. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) would impose a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese goods entering the U.S. to counterbalance the allegedly unfair advantage the yuan's weakness gives Chinese companies over their U.S. competitors.

The administration opposes that bill as far too sweeping a punishment, and after talks with Mr. Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan this summer, the sponsors agreed to hold that bill back in anticipation of what turned out to be China's July 21 announcement of its new approach to the yuan. The bill is likely to resurface, however, particularly if Sens. Schumer and Graham feel the administration isn't being tough enough on China, by, for example, failing to brand China a currency manipulator in the October report.

A separate bill, already passed by the House and awaiting action in the Senate, would allow the Commerce Department to impose import duties against Chinese goods to counter the effects of government subsidies to Chinese firms.

"Protectionist pressures are really there," said the Treasury official. "Aside from something Katrina-related, there would be no more popular bill on the Hill right now than something protectionist aimed at China."

The Chinese authorities "have to recognize that," the official said.


Thursday, September 15, 2005

Support for Bush Continues to Drop, Poll Shows

New York Times, September 15, 2005

WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 - A summer of bad news from Iraq, high gasoline prices, economic unease and now the devastation of Hurricane Katrina has left President Bush with overall approval ratings for his job performance and handling of Iraq, foreign policy and the economy at or near the lowest levels of his presidency, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

For the first time, just half of Americans approve of Mr. Bush's handling of terrorism, which has been his most consistent strength since he scored 90 percent approval ratings in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. More than 6 in 10 now say that he does not share their priorities for the country, 10 percentage points worse than on the eve of his re-election last fall, while barely half say he has strong qualities of leadership, about the same as said so at the early low-ebb of his presidency in the summer of 2001.

More Americans now distrust the federal government to do the right thing than at any time since the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. And the poll revealed a sharp racial divide. While half of all respondents disapprove of the way Mr. Bush has handled the aftermath of Katrina, nearly three quarters of blacks do. (Mr. Bush won only about 10 percent of the black vote last year.)

The hurricane, alone, does not appear to have taken any significant toll on Mr. Bush's overall job approval rating, which remains stuck virtually where it has been since early summer. But the findings do suggest that the slow federal response to the hurricane has increased public doubts about the Bush administration's effectiveness. Fifty-six percent of Americans said they were now less confident about the government's ability to respond to a terrorist attack or natural disaster.

Taken together, the numbers suggest that a public that has long seen Mr. Bush as a determined leader, whether it agreed with him or not, has growing doubts about his capacity to deal with pressing problems. More than 6 in 10 said they were uneasy about his ability to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq, and half expressed similar unease about his ability to deal with the problems of the storm's victims.

Mr. Bush's support remained strong among Republicans, conservatives, evangelical Christians and those who said they voted for him last fall. Nearly twice as many people - 63 percent - said the country was "pretty seriously" on the wrong track as those who said it was headed in the right direction, equal to the worst level of Mr. Bush's presidency during a spate of bad news last year.

Over all, 41 percent of respondents approved of Mr. Bush's performance in office, while 53 percent disapproved. Those figures are in line with other national polls conducted in the last week, roughly equal to the worst ratings Mr. Bush has ever received, comparable to Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton's worst ratings, but well above the worst ever posted by the president's father, Jimmy Carter and Richard M. Nixon.

The Times/CBS News Poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday with 1,167 adults, including 877 whites and 211 blacks. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all respondents and whites, and seven percentage points for blacks. The survey was mostly completed before Mr. Bush said on Tuesday that he accepted responsibility for flaws in the federal response to the hurricane.

Dan Bartlett, Mr. Bush's counselor and chief communications strategist, said the White House was not especially surprised by the poll's findings.

"Obviously, as we have said, with a sharp increase in the cost of gasoline and anxiety about the war, that is obviously reflected in the polls, and then we have a sustained amount of heavy coverage of what has been described as a major failure of government at all levels, it shouldn't surprise people that that would be reflected in the poll numbers on the president, and particularly on terrorism," Mr. Bartlett said.

"The president is going to continue to focus on his responsibilities as not only president but commander in chief, when it comes to making sure we do everything we can to help the people hit by Katrina, as well as continue to conduct the war on terrorism in an aggressive way," he added.

While the poll found that 70 percent said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was too slow in responding to the aftermath of the hurricane, 53 percent said the agency was now doing all it could reasonably be expected to do.

The same did not hold true for the Bush administration itself; 68 percent said it had not yet developed a clear plan for finding housing and jobs for people left homeless by the hurricane. Mr. Bush is to address the nation from New Orleans on Thursday night to elaborate on the government's planned response to the disaster.

Before the storm hit, polls had shown that rising gasoline prices were becoming increasingly worrisome to a majority of Americans, and the hurricane has only worsened that concern. Almost half the public said the economy was deteriorating, the worst that number has been in four years. Fifty-six percent expect the economy to decline as a result of the hurricane, and nearly three-quarters anticipate taxes will rise for the same reason.

The poll also pointed up starkly different attitudes toward Mr. Bush and the government among blacks and whites that were not so much caused by the storm as laid bare by it. While two-thirds of all Americans said Mr. Bush cares at least somewhat about the people left homeless by the hurricane, fewer than one-third of blacks agreed. Two-thirds of blacks said race was a major factor in the government's slow response to the flooding in New Orleans, while an almost identical number of whites said it was not.

Storm victims had to wait for a week for help to arrive, said Allison McKinney, 33, a housewife and former teacher in Fort Bragg, N.C. "I don't think that would happen to any other city, because New Orleans is a poor city." Ms. McKinney, who is black, grew up in New Orleans and was among those who agreed to be interviewed after participating in the poll. "It took Katrina for people to realize that the city had a major impact on the rest of the country. I think it's sad that you would wait for the total devastation of a city to come to that realization."

But Juanita Harrington, 78, a retired Verizon employee and Bush supporter in Larkspur, Colo., said critics of the president "focus everything as if he were a magician and could wave a magic wand and change things."

She added: "The people that were there locally didn't take care of matters there, either. I'm talking about the mayor of New Orleans, I'm talking about the governor, I'm talking about that crazy woman senator from Louisiana - she was an idiot. He may not have succeeded totally, but nobody else did, either."

The poll suggested the cumulative effects of months of bad news from the continuing insurgency in Iraq. Exactly 50 percent of Americans approve of Mr. Bush's handling of terrorism, for example, and while that figure is the single worst ranking since the question was first asked four years ago, it is only slightly worse than it was early this summer. But that is 11 points worse than it was in February, just after the first successful round of elections in Iraq.

The data also suggest that the residual support that has steadily buoyed Mr. Bush in the four years since the Sept. 11 attacks may have reached its limit, for now. Fifty-three percent of Americans still say he has strong qualities of leadership, down 9 percentage points since he was re-elected and essentially equal to his all-time previous low in the summer of 2001, when his presidency seemed becalmed before the attacks.

At the same time, 45 percent of Americans now say Mr. Bush does not have strong leadership qualities, six percentage points more than last fall, and the highest percentage since the Times/CBS poll first asked the question during Mr. Bush's initial campaign in 1999.

Those general impressions now extend across the board in reviews of Mr. Bush's handling of particular issues. Thirty-eight percent of Americans approve of his handling of foreign policy; 35 percent of his handling of the economy; and 36 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq. All those are at or roughly equal to his all-time lows - and below his all-time highs by double digits.

Some of the pessimism seemed clearly fueled by higher gasoline prices. Nearly two-thirds of those polled said they had cut back on household spending as a result of higher prices, and 8 in 10 said the administration had no plan for keeping prices down, though more than 6 in 10 said the price of gas is something a president can do a lot about.

A majority of the public is willing to pay more in taxes to assist hurricane victims with job training and housing; about 4 in 10 said they would be willing to pay as much as $200 a year more to help out with the storm's aftermath.