Tuesday, May 31, 2005

台辦人事安排中共對台新思路 

【明報專訊】廈門市委書記鄭立中最近調職,儘管北京官方迄今的說法仍是「另有任用」,但消息人士稱,鄭氏上調北京,出任中台辦和國台辦副主任一事當屬事實。這一安排,顯示出中央對台工作正在按照胡錦濤對台政策新思路,加強對台灣民眾的感情投入,寄希望於台灣人民。 

對台工作始終是中共高層最重要的工作之一,並由最高領導人親自指揮與決策。有學者認為,此次中台辦和國台辦的人事安排,體現出中央對台政策的思路與側重。 

當年具軍方背景的王在希出任國台辦副主任,不僅由於他對台灣選情的準確判斷(預測陳水扁將贏得大選),更是江澤民做好以軍事手段解決台灣問題準備的一個重要部署。 

畢業於上海復旦大學國際政治系的周明偉,在美國哈佛大學修讀碩士學位並完成博士課程,他一度從上海外辦主任的位置上進京接替唐樹備出任國台辦副主任,體現出中央加強對美國的工作和做好包括台港澳在內的全球工商界華人工作的意圖。 

曾任揚州市長、市委書記的李炳才出任國台辦副主任,則被認為是中央加強對台經貿工作戰略意圖的體現。 

加強對台灣民眾感情投入 現年54歲的鄭立中是福建霞浦人,長期在福建工作,01年接替牽涉遠華案的李閩忠出任漳州市委書記,02年出任廈門市委書記,在與台灣最為接近的兩個城市與台胞、台商建立了普遍的人脈,對於了解島內情?和台人心態可謂近水樓台。 

據稱,當地台商大多認為鄭立中是最了解台灣情?,同時也最能照顧台商的地方領導人。相信發揮其對台胞、台商的親和力和熟悉島內情?與民心的優勢,進一步促進兩岸經濟合作和爭取台灣民眾,是中央調其進京履新的重要原因。 

由於大多數台灣人都祖籍福建,福建與台灣有?地緣、血緣以及文化等諸多相近之處,以福建人來負責對台事務,無疑具有許多優勢。此前,即有專家建議中央考慮安排福建人進入國台辦高層。兩會期間,也有政協委員建議增加國台辦中福建人的比例。 

作為中共福建省委常委和廈門市委書記,鄭立中為副省級官員,儘管京官與地方官有所不同,但此次進京,就其個人而言仍屬平級調動。之所以受到高度關注,一方面是中央對台政策走勢的最新顯示,另一方面這是胡錦濤全面接班以來中台辦與國台辦高層人事的第一次變動。 

目前的四位副主任中,李炳才與王在希都面臨退休問題,主任陳雲林也臨近退休之年,故相信鄭立中接替李炳才之後,國台辦人事陸續會有所變化,有關學者分析,以鄭立中出任國台辦副主任為標誌,中央對台工作將真正進入胡錦濤時代。

歐陽五

Yasukuni row splits coalition

The Yomiuri Shimbun

The relationship between Japan and China that became strained over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine continues to rattle the government and ruling parties.

Some Liberal Democratic Party members have become increasingly bitter toward China, while New Komeito has stepped up efforts to urge the prime minister to stop visiting the Shinto shrine. Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda has tried to settle the situation by refraining from criticizing China, but friction within the government and the ruling parties continues to grow.

Former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shizuka Kamei said at his faction's meeting Thursday said: "A problem concerning Yasukuni Shrine is a problem for the Japanese soul. The government should work toward making China and South Korea understand that."

Former Construction Minister Katsutsugu Sekiya said [Chinese Vice Prime Minister Wu Yi's abrupt cancellation of talks with Koizumi] broke international protocol. "It's extremely discourteous and ungracious toward Japan," he added.

Within the government, Diet members are frustrated by moves of China and South Korea that they say take advantage of historical issues.

Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura said at a meeting of the Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) on Thursday: "Although we have told Chinese and South Korean foreign ministers that they can come to understand that Japan reflects on [war] by looking at its behavior after World War II, they don't say they understand because it's a tool they can use in diplomacy. They won't let go of this easily."

Machimura criticized Chinese and South Korean governments over the history textbook issue.
"Japan's militarism is not glorified in Japanese history textbooks. Criticisms of China and South Korea are only based on slogans written in newspapers," he said.

Meanwhile, New Komeito Secretary General Tetsuzo Fuyushiba said at a Diet members meeting Thursday that Koizumi should refrain from visiting Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines the country's war dead including Class-A war criminals.

"I wonder if Japan should do something that China and South Korea don't like," he said. "We should take into consideration the sentiment of the people [in those countries] who were victimized in the war."

New Komeito leader Takenori Kanzaki and Fuyushiba talked about the matter Tuesday. They reportedly agreed at a press conference that Koizumi should refrain from visiting the shrine because the party's supporters said they want the government to clarify its stance on the issue.
However, a senior party official said, "I don't think that the prime minister will stop visiting the shrine, and I won't confront with Koizumi on the issue."

The party seems to have drawn a line on the issue ahead of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in July.

Koizumi told reporters, "New Komeito has taken its own stance, and it's good that there are various opinions."

Morioka attacks China's approach

Masahiro Morioka, parliamentary secretary of the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry criticized the Chinese government for demanding Koizumi stop visiting the shrine. "Class-A war criminals are treated as bad people because of fear of China," Morioka said. "War criminals were categorized as Class-A, Class-B and Class-C at the Tokyo Tribunal of War Criminals. They were categorized by a one-sided tribunal led by the Occupation forces at which crimes against peace and humanity were created."

"A war is part of politics, and it is in line with an international law. The Diet unanimously agreed to pay pensions to the families of Class-A war criminals who have died. They're not seen as criminals in the country," he said.

"Saying it's bad to enshrine Class-A criminals at Yasukuni Shrine is to turn a blind eye to future troubles," he added.

Referring to Morioka's remarks, Hosoda said later in the day: "Such remarks should never be made by a member of the government. There were some errors in the judgments, but it's no use to comment on it. Japan accepted [the tribunal's decision]."

Koizumi told reporters at the Prime Minister's Office, "It's meaningless to take note of his remarks. It's got nothing to do with my visits [to Yasukuni Shrine]."

"I spoke about action the government should take," Morioka said. "Remarks that support the prime minister's visits to the shrine will never contradict the government's point of view."

Hiroshi Okuda, chairman of Nippon Keidanren, suggested at a meeting Thursday the government should consider separating Class-A war criminals from other war dead at Yasukuni Shrine.

"Prime Minister Koizumi doesn't visit Yasukuni Shrine to pray for Class-A war criminals," Okuda said. "It's necessary for the country to think again about whether Class-A war criminals should be in the shrine."

Lawmaker regrets comment

New Komeito lawmaker Junichi Fukumoto asked the House of Councillors administrative office Thursday to delete from the minutes of the upper house's Budget Committee remarks regarding Koizumi's visit to Yasukuni Shrine he made May 20.

Fukumoto had told Koizumi at a committee meeting, "I want you to think about how Jewish people would feel if the German chancellor visited the grave of Adolf Hitler." Fukumoto said his remark had been inappropriate.

Asahi : 48% say Koizumi blundering on China

The Asahi Shimbun 05/31/2005

Nearly half the population is dissatisfied with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's handling of the crisis with China that has brought bilateral relations to their lowest ebb in decades, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed Monday.

The newspaper contacted eligible voters at random by telephone over the weekend and received 1,876 valid responses, representing 53 percent of those polled. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they ``disapproved'' of Koizumi's stance toward China, while 35 percent backed him on the issue.

Already strained ties with China have been exacerbated by Koizumi's insistence on continuing to make annual visits to the war-related Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Class-A war criminals along with the nation's war dead.

Asked how they felt about Koizumi visiting the Tokyo shrine, 49 percent replied he should stop, far exceeding the 39 percent who support his stance on the issue.

The poll showed that voters are not only critical of their prime minister and his way of dealing with Beijing, but remain equally disapproving of China and its stance toward Japan.

Only 37 percent said they could identify with China's stand on the Yasukuni issue. More than half of the respondents-51 percent-said China's attitude was ``incomprehensible.''

The poll results suggest Japanese voters are at a loss over how relations with Japan's biggest trading partner can be put back on a firmer footing. With neither country showing signs of backing down, it would appear that Japanese voters are unable to sympathize with either side.

Despite strong disapproval for his actions, the number of Koizumi supporters is rising. The approval rating for the Koizumi Cabinet climbed to 45 percent, showing a steady recovery from March, when both support and nonsupport rates were at 40 percent.

(IHT/Asahi: May 31,2005)

商務部部長薄熙來講紡織品問題

Details :
http://www.xinhuanet.com/zhibo/20050530a/zhibo.htm

US Politics Navigator

Selective guide to political sites on the Internet
By RICH MEISLIN


The Government The White House The House of Representatives GOP.gov, from the House Republican Conference The Speaker's News Page from the House Speaker's office House Democratic leadership page House Clerk's Office follows House proceedings House Rules Committee has House rules, schedules and information on how Congress works The Senate Senate Republican Policy Committee Senate Democratic Leadership The Judiciary Supreme Court Federal District and Appeals Courts
Congressional Pictoral Directory Pictures of members of Congress in PDF format Congress.org lets you find and send e-mail to federal, state and local officials. FedWorld Information Services: Comprehensive guide to Government databases FirstGov provides access to government services for individuals, businesses and governments. Federal Government Agencies, a clean, easy-to-use listing Federal Web Locator helps find government Web sites National Governors' Association National Conference of State Legislatures New York State Government Information Locator

Parties & Persuasions Democratic National Committee Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee New Democrats Online from the Democratic Leadership Council Republican National Committee National Republican Congressional Committee National Republican Senatorial Committee State Republican parties and candidates Libertarian Party Free-Market.net Extensive collection of Libertarian links Libertarian.org More about the persuasion than the party Reform Party of Ross Perot fame The Green Parties worldwide and Green Party of the United States Democratic Socialists of America Communist Party U.S.A. Socialist Party U.S.A. New Party Natural Law Party Constitution Party formerly United States Taxpayers Party
Turn Left was the home of liberalism on the Web, but is no longer updated The Federalist Society Conservative and libertarian thought The Christian Coalition National Right to Life Committee National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League Moving Ideas from a collection of liberal publications, think tanks and organizations (formerly Electronic Policy Network) People for the American Way "Progressive" lobbying and activism (interesting information on the Religious Right in politics) National Committee for an Effective Congress Political information, voting and finance data from "progressive" viewpoint Campaign for America's Future advocates what it calls "progressive reform" New Democrat Network supports "pro-growth, pro-family" Democrats Democrats.com online community site for "progressive" Democrats The Interfaith Alliance seeks to counter what it calls religious extremist influence in politics American Israel Public Affairs Committee Pro-Israel lobby The Feminist Majority Emily's List Political network for pro-choice Democratic women National Organization for Women National Rifle Association American Civil Liberties Union The John Birch Society The Concord Coalition aims to eliminate the budget deficit Web Active and NetAction link to a variety of progressive activist causes AFL-CIO The labor perspective MoveOn says its goal is to bring ordinary people back into politics

Political Information The American Presidency a history of the office from Grolier Online Ballot Access News follows efforts to get candidates on the ballot Cato Institute the libertarian think tank Center for Public Integrity studies the impact of money on public policy The Center for Voting and Democracy advocates proportional representation Congressional Guide A wealth of information on members and committees of the 105th Congress, from Capitol Advantage Campaigns and Elections Election news and a political blog directory CQ.com from Congressional Quarterly Congressional roll calls from Congressional Observer Publications Council on Foreign Relations tracks the candidates on foreign policy issues DemocracyNet Information about and discussion of local elections and issues from the League of Women Voters The Empire Page links to major news headlines on politics each day, emphasizing New York Federal Election Commission data on campaign contributions Follow the Money gives contribution information for state races Gender Gap tracks the progress of women in government and the military The Gallup Poll Gotham Gazette New York City news and policy from Citizens Union GovSpot Useful government information of all types Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank InCongress collects information from interest groups on various issues before Congress Intellectual Capital National Political Index links to varied political and government sites and services OpenSecrets.org from The Center for Responsive Politics provides extensive campaign contribution information Policy.com offers looks at major national issues from various perspectives Political Information searches 5,000 politics and policy web sites PoliticalMoneyLine Federal Election Commission data in a more useful format Political Site of the Day from Kessler-Freedman Political Science Resources an excellent international collection of links Politics1 Information on parties, candidates and issues PoliticsNY looks at New York politics and links to New York candidates' and officials' sites Pollingreport.com tracks trends in public opinion from various sources Project Vote Smart tracks candidates, officials and issues Public Agenda provides research on major issues in a nonpartisan manner self-gov.org offers a quick test of your political leanings TownHall.com Conservative news and information The Vanishing Voter Project links from the Shorenstein Center at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government Voter and registration demographics from the Census Bureau Vote.com from Dick Morris and friends lets people "vote" on public issues Whitehouse 2004 the early line from Avi Bass of Northern Illinois University Political Media & Commentary The Atlantic Policy & Society from the Atlantic Online C-Span Program schedules and TV/radio feeds Commentary eVote, with news and features, says it "keeps score in the Great Game of Politics." Fast Politics links to political news from many sources Foreign Policy The venerable magazine of international politics The Hill Capitol Hill news National Review Online The New Republic Online Roll Call Online Capitol Hill news Salon politics Slate, Microsoft's magazine of politics and culture

Public Opinion RealClear Politics summarizes the latest political polls News Organizations ABC News CBS News The Los Angeles Times Minnesota Poll from the Minneapolis Star Tribune The New York Times The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post

Private Organizations Gallup Poll Ipsos Market research, advertising research and public opinion Kaiser Family Foundation MORI Market research organization in Britain Pew Research Center PollingReport.com Public Agenda Nonprofit public opinion and policy analysis organization founded by Daniel Yankelovich and Cyrus Vance The Tarrance Group's Battleground Polls Yankelovich Zogby International

State Polls Arkansas Arkansas Poll, University of Arkansas California Field Poll Connecticut Quinnipiac University Poll Minnesota Poll Minneapolis Star Tribune New Jersey Quinnipiac University Poll New York Marist Institute for Public Opnion New York Quinnipiac University Poll Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Poll

Academic Organizations Council of European Social Science Data Archives Archives in Europe Archives in North America Other archives The Eagleton Poll at Rutgers General Social Survey from the University of Michigan Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research National Annenberg Election Survey from the University of Pennsylvania Odum Institute at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Program on International Policy Attitudes Racial Attitudes in America from the University of Illinois at Chicago


Presidential Candidates George W. Bush John Kerry Ralph Nader

.

中美元首年內5會面

中央黨校《學習時報》

【明報專訊】由中共中央黨校主辦的《學習時報》最新一期刊載趙世人的文章提出,中美兩國領導人今年至少有5次會面的機會﹔而兩國相關部門的對話也呈現出機制化發展的勢頭。 

文章說,今年3月20日,從總統國家安全事務助理轉任美國國務卿的賴斯訪問北京,此訪問是為美國總統布殊年內訪華做準備。

胡錦濤布殊將互訪 除了上述系列雙邊互訪和對話安排外,中美兩國領導人今年也會在其他的多邊場合見面。

5月9日,在莫斯科舉行了紀念反法西斯戰爭勝利60周年活動。胡錦濤與布殊共同出席紀念活動。 

7月,英國將舉辦八國集團(G8)倫敦峰會,計劃遵循法國EVIAN模式,在峰會期間舉行南北領導人對話會。主辦方已邀請中國出席。 

9月,聯合國將在紐約總部舉行成立60周年紀念大會。來自中國外交部的可靠消息表示,國家主席胡錦濤已獲邀出席。目前正在規劃對美國的國事訪問事宜。如成行,這將是1997年江澤民訪美以來,時隔7年多後中國國家主席對美國的正式訪問。 

11月,韓國將在首都首爾舉辦亞太經合組織(APEC)領導人非正式會議。按慣例,中美兩國領導人將應邀出席。又是一個安排見面、舉行會談、交換意見的場合。 

具有重大象徵意義 文章說,從上述一系列的安排可以看出,中美兩國領導人今年至少有5次會面的機會,依次是﹕莫斯科、紐約、華盛頓、首爾和北京。兩國相關部門的對話也呈現出機制化發展的勢頭。這其中,最重要的有兩件大事。 

一是如無重大意外,中美兩國元首極有可能在年內實現互訪﹕胡錦濤9月訪美,布殊則會於11月回訪。這將是中美自1979年建交以來兩國領導人的首次年內互訪,對中美關係來說,具有重大的象徵意義。就是在中美關係處於外電所謂的「蜜月期」內,也未曾有過兩國最高領導人年內互訪的事情。 

二是兩國宣布建立定期高層對話機制,就全面的政治和經濟議題舉行對話。雖然中美目前在經貿、科技和軍事領域都有定期會晤磋商的機制,也有兩國副外長級的戰略穩定和安全磋商機制,但此次定期高層對話機制的建立,將填補中美定期政治對話的空白,使中美關係特別是雙邊政治關係不再停留在原來的「危機處理或應對」的模式上。 (this confirmed May 18, 2005 WSJ : Engaging China Is Delicate Dance report)

Monday, May 30, 2005

China Cancels Tariffs On Textile Exports

By FEDERICA BIANCHI DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

May 30, 2005 2:33 a.m.

BEIJING – China signaled Monday that it's willing to play hardball in trade disputes with the West by canceling self-imposed tariffs on its textile exports.

In a terse statement, the Ministry of Finance announced it was rescinding export tariffs on 78 textile products that had been imposed on Jan. 1, as well as another set of tariffs announced less than two weeks ago.

The first set was designed to limit a surge of Chinese exports after the lifting of a global quota system for textile trade at the start of this year, while the second set was a response to complaints by the U.S. and the European Union, which have experienced a leap in Chinese shipments. So canceling the tariffs is certain to fan protectionist sentiment in China's major trading partners.

"I don't think they have reached a trade war situation yet," said Paul McKenzie, head of consumer research at CLSA Asia Pacific Markets in Hong Kong.

But he added that if the textile dispute wasn't quickly resolved, China might conceivably take steps against products from the U.S. or EU that weren't textile-related, or might show bias against American or European companies. "These would signal the start of a trade war," he said.

China's finance and commerce ministries didn't immediately explain the decision, but said Commerce Minister Bo Xilai would discuss it later Monday at a news conference.

The decision was almost certainly made in retaliation against the EU, which three days earlier took the dispute over Chinese textile exports to the World Trade Organization, forcing an immediate curb in shipments of T-shirts and flax yarn. China has also been angered by the fact that the U.S. has continued to pursue legal action against Chinese textiles since Beijing raised export tariffs earlier this month.

Some analysts said in addition to warning the U.S. and the EU that it wouldn't tolerate more protectionist measures, China might be trying to reduce international pressure on it to revalue the yuan.

"This is clearly part of Beijing's negotiating tactics," said J.P. Morgan economist Ben Simpfendorfer. "Beijing is trying to break the attention of the EU and the U.S. down to specific issues."

Many analysts said Monday that following the tariff decision, a yuan revaluation in coming months had become less likely. China has always insisted it won't give into foreign pressure on its currency policy, and is particularly unlikely to do so while it also feels aggrieved over textile trade.

Standard Chartered Bank economist Tai Hui said China's textile decision probably made reform of its exchange rate system more distant.

"What bit of progress which has been made will now be stalled as the three sides enter negotiations, not only over textiles but also trade policy," he said.

In the Shanghai stock market on Monday, most textile shares rose moderately on relief that their profit margins wouldn't be hit by the export tariffs. Shenzhen Textile Holdings Co. rose 1.7% in a soft overall market, while Luthai Textile Joint Stock Co. gained 2.3%.

However, analysts said investors' relief could prove short-lived if the EU and the U.S. responded to China's decision by imposing fresh restrictions on Chinese textiles.

According to EU figures, Europe's imports of Chinese T-shirts soared 187% from a year earlier in the first four months of 2005, while flax yarn imports jumped 56%.

There was no immediate comment from the Beijing office of the EU, while the U.S. embassy was closed for a U.S. holiday.

China to scrap textile export taxes

Reuters Sunday, May 29, 2005; 11:38 PM

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China said on Monday it would abolish export tariffs on 78 lines of clothing and textiles, keeping its promise to roll back the taxes if Western countries threw up barriers against its goods.

The European Union on Friday formally requested talks with China over surging shipments of T-shirts and flax yarn, which have fanned fears of widescale bankruptcies and lay-offs in the 25-member bloc.

Under the terms of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, lodging the request requires China to limit its exports of those products to a level no greater than 7.5 percent above the amount that entered the 25-member EU between March 2004 and February 2005.

Washington imposed similar quotas on Chinese-made trousers, underwear, shirts and other goods in mid-May.

To head off such curbs, China introduced an export tax on 148 products on Jan. 1, the day a decades-old system of quotas on developing countries' exports of textiles expired.

China's exports duly boomed, leading to anger in Washington and some EU countries and prompting Beijing on May 20 to offer another round of tariff increases on 74 products with effect from June 1.

In a statement on its Web site, (www.mof.gov.cn) China's finance ministry said tariffs that had been in effect on 78 items since Jan. 1 would be scrapped on Wednesday, and planned taxes on three of the lines listed on May 20 would be revoked.

"The State Council's tax committee decided to further adjust textile export tariffs from June 1," the statement said.

"This includes the abolition of a planned export tax on linen yarn. In total, 81 items will see export tariffs canceled from June 1."

China had given due warning of its planned action.

"If countries take action to limit textile product exports from China, we will exclude those products from the export tariffs," Commerce Ministry spokesman Chong Quan said on May 21.

The executive Commission, which has responsibility for EU trade policy, said intensive talks would take place starting on Monday at all levels with China over its textile exports.

Under WTO rules, if no agreement is reached within 90 days, the EU is permitted to impose the 7.5 percent "safeguard" until the end of the year. They can be renewed until the end of 2008.

China reacted testily on Sunday to the move by Brussels.

"The decision not only transmitted an erroneous signal of trade protectionism for the textile industry sector of the EU, but also undermined the rights and interests of Chinese enterprises in global textile products trade integration," Chong said in a statement posted on the ministry's Web site.

But he said China was willing to settle the problems through consultations with a "pragmatic attitude." The EU, too, held out hope for a mutually satisfactory deal during the 15-day consultation period.

EU figures show imports of Chinese T-shirts rose 187 percent in the first quarter of 2005, while imports of flax yarn, used to make linen cloth, rose 56 percent.

Hong Kong Reporter Being Held By China

Writer Sought Records Of Secret Interviews

HONG KONG -- China has detained a prominent member of Hong Kong's international press corps who traveled to the mainland to obtain a collection of secret interviews with a Communist leader purged for opposing the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

More & Full Details : Damocles Sword

Saturday, May 28, 2005

NY Times Square Posted by Hello

Bush Administration Rejects Latest Request For Trade Case on China

Associated Press May 27, 2005 6:48 p.m.

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration on Friday turned down the latest request for a trade case to be brought against China over its currency system.

U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman rejected a petition filed in April by House and Senate members asking the administration to use a provision in U.S. trade law, known as Section 301, that allows economic sanctions to be used against unfair trade practices.

"We do not believe that a Section 301 action is appropriate or a productive way" to achieve the goal of a flexible Chinese currency system, Mr. Portman's spokesman Richard Mills said in a statement.

The decision came a little more than a week after the Treasury Department refused in a report to Congress to cite China as a country that manipulates its currency to gain trade advantages.
The petition filed by lawmakers, including Rep. Benjamin Cardin, the top Democrat on the Ways and Means trade subcommittee, had raised the same arguments as U.S. manufacturers: that China is unfairly manipulating its currency to gain trade advantages by retaining for the past decade a system that links the yuan to the U.S. dollar at a fixed value of 8.28 yuan to the dollar.

American manufacturers contend this has undervalued the yuan by as much as 40%, making Chinese products cheaper in the U.S. market and American goods more expensive in China.

Critics blame China's currency system for contributing to the loss of three million U.S. manufacturing jobs over the past five years. They also blame China's system for a soaring trade deficit that hit a record $617 billion last year, including a $162 billion imbalance just with China, the largest ever with a single country.

Friday's announcement marked the third time the administration has turned down a request for the U.S. to bring a trade case against China over the issue before the World Trade Organization. It rejected an earlier petition from lawmakers last November and before that turned down a petition by a group of unions and manufacturing companies that had sought to pressure the administration in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign.

In rejecting the latest petition, Mr. Mills said the administration shared the goals of the petitioners for a "flexible, market-based exchange rate system" in China but continued to feel there were better ways to achieve that goal than by filing a trade case.

Treasury Secretary John Snow, testifying before Congress on the issue Thursday, predicted that China would move to make its currency system more flexible over the next five months, before the administration's next report on the issue to Congress in October.

The administration, which initially argued that China should allow its currency to float freely with its value set by global currency markets, now contends that such a move would be too disruptive in the near term. It argues that an interim step should be taken.

While the administration has not specified what that step would be, currency experts say China could link the yuan's value to a group of currencies from other countries, not just the dollar, or it could create a band within which the currency could trade.

Friday, May 27, 2005

WSJ : Once Close-Knit, Sock Industry Splits Over Trade Restrictions

As Bush Curbs China Imports,Mr. Nichols Sees Betrayal;
Mr. Cole's Mill Stays Open

'Head Buried in the Sand'

By GREG HITT and DAN MORSE Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNALMay 27, 2005; Page A1

MOUNT AIRY, N.C. -- From an unassuming whitewashed building here, Warren Nichols runs one of the largest sock companies in the world. His Renfro Corp. churns out more than a million pairs a day, with more than 4,500 workers spread from North Carolina to Mexico and Turkey. Later this year, he plans to add China to his production empire.

But the Shanghai operation won't ship as many socks back home as Mr. Nichols had originally planned because of an import curb the Bush administration slapped on Chinese socks. Making him more bitter: A fellow member of the once-clubby American sock-making fraternity, Charles Cole of Alabama Footwear Inc., led the campaign for the restrictions.

"You're either for a global economy or you're an isolationist -- take your pick," says Mr. Nichols, who believes the Bush move "betrayed us." Mr. Cole responds that "there needs to be an equalizer" to help Americans compete with China. "I could move to Honduras," he says. "That would give me a job. But how about the 76 people who work here at this mill?"

The rift between Messrs. Nichols and Cole is a microcosm of how trade and globalization can ripple through, and then rip apart, an industry. Several industry associations have split between outsourcing multinationals and the little suppliers whose work is being outsourced.

The socks war pits big businesses against small ones and profit-driven executives against those also focused on preserving their hometowns. It also offers a window into the rise of anti-China sentiment in Washington, where some politicians are calling for trade curbs and pressuring Beijing to let its currency rise against the dollar. Adding to the sock restrictions, the Bush administration has moved in recent days to restrict imports on a range of Chinese-made products from cotton yarn to underwear. (See related article.)

Mr. Nichols, 67 years old, and Mr. Cole, 58, are both native sons of Southern mill towns. But from similar roots, the two have traveled along different paths.
Mr. Nichols, who is partial to dressy business-casual clothes from Brooks Brothers, runs Renfro from one of a long row of neatly appointed offices in the company's executive suite. He traveled to China 20 years ago to study sock-making there, and spent three months at Harvard Business School in a midcareer program.

Renfro started out as a small, family-run firm in 1921. Mr. Nichols joined the company in 1959 and his appointment as chief executive in 1990 signaled the company's move away from family control, although it remains closely held today. Renfro socks are sold under brand names including Fruit of the Loom and Odor-Eaters.

Renfro's headquarters in Mount Airy, the hometown of actor Andy Griffith, has become the nerve center of a global business, but relatively few socks are made here. Last year, Renfro eliminated 280 jobs at its lone Mount Airy plant, a big block building on the banks of the Ararat River. The layoffs resulted in part from expansion in Mexico.

Mr. Nichols describes having "mixed emotions" at the loss. "I have sentiment for the American people," he says, but "essentially, I'm looking out for our business and our shareholders."

Mr. Cole, usually dressed in a golf shirt, khakis and tennis shoes, works out of a cluttered office within earshot of the factory floor. It's decorated with a large, framed print celebrating the 1992 national football championship of his alma mater, the University of Alabama, along with tiny bulldozer models from his days running a strip mine.

He started Alabama Footwear 23 years ago in Fort Payne, Ala., with $250,000, putting up his small house as part of the collateral for a loan. He still owns the company. Unlike some of the bigger companies in North Carolina, the Alabama sock industry chiefly consists of 75 small and midsize mills that effectively work as a kind of cooperative. The mills specialize in white athletic socks, many sold as house brands at retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp. and J.C. Penney Co., Mr. Cole says.

Mr. Cole's company does knitting work, turning yarn into socks. Others act as "finishers," preparing products for retailers by dying, folding and packaging them. If one firm moves to China, it's not only hurting its own employees, it's also hurting the other companies in the network.

Mr. Cole bristles at the suggestion that companies seeking trade limits have failed to adapt to a changing world. He notes that Alabama Footwear has spent more than $4.5 million on equipment upgrades over the past five years. That includes 130 Italian-made machines that automatically turn spools of yarn into knitted socks, untouched by workers. After installing these and other machines, Mr. Cole gradually scaled back his work force to 76 from 105.

For most of its history, the Charlotte, N.C.-based Hosiery Association was able to represent both big companies and small. That was true even through the 1990s, when larger firms steered the group toward an embrace of free trade. Sock makers didn't fight in 1994 when the U.S. and other major trading nations agreed to phase out textile trade quotas over 10 years.

The Hosiery Association's consensus began to fray in 2000 over legislation to allow duty-free entry of textiles from the Caribbean. Renfro, with a plant in Honduras at the time, wanted to make sure the initiative included socks. The Hosiery Association agreed and hired lobbyists to pursue the issue.

At Alabama Footwear, Mr. Cole says he hadn't paid much attention to the association's position on trade until then. He feared Caribbean imports could hurt companies like his that don't have overseas plants. In Fort Payne, which welcomes visitors with signs declaring itself the "Sock Capital of the World," he spread the word among fellow sock makers. At a monthly meeting of the Hosiery Association's Alabama chapter, Mr. Cole stood before his colleagues in a back dining room of the local Western Sizzlin' steakhouse and explained how the national association's free-trade push conflicted with Alabama's interests.
"We intend to get that changed," he remembers telling about 50 sock makers.

He organized a campaign to write letters to Congress and had 4,000 envelopes delivered from Fort Payne mill workers to Washington. He personally piloted fellow Alabama sock makers to Washington aboard his six-passenger Cessna to make the case.

Meetings of the full Hosiery Association grew more bitter. Some Fort Payne factory owners politicked to force out veteran association president Sid Smith, who had pushed for free trade, according to one Fort Payne sock maker. In the summer of 2001 Mr. Smith announced plans to retire, though he says it wasn't related to the pressure. His last board meeting as president was in October 2001. At that meeting, the board overturned the association's free-trade positions, deciding not to take any trade stance. The group later formed a committee, headed by Mr. Cole, to lobby on behalf of the smaller firms that focus on U.S. production.

The shift on trade left the association deeply divided. Prior to the meeting, Mr. Nichols had tried to convince other sock makers they couldn't stop trade liberalization. "Look guys, it's coming," he says he told them. Mr. Nichols "just felt like the rest of us had our head buried in the sand if we thought we could do anything about global outsourcing," Mr. Cole says. When the time came to renew Renfro's membership in the Hosiery Association for 2002, Mr. Nichols chose not to.

Congress ended up deciding in late 2002 to give socks from the Caribbean limited duty-free benefits -- a victory for Mr. Nichols. But bigger fights loomed. As the old trade controls continued to be phased out and China ramped up production, the U.S. market share for American sock makers fell to 31.4% in 2004 from 64% in 2001, according to Hosiery Association data.

That trend and more efficient machines have caused employment at sock mills in and around Fort Payne to drop to 4,400 from about 7,000 three years ago, according to the local economic development authority.

In 2003, Mr. Cole started lobbying for a new law that would require the packaging of all socks sold in the U.S. to carry a prominent country-of-origin notice. Every label would have to say, for example, "Made in U.S.A." or "Made in China" in lettering as large as the lettering showing the size of the socks. Renfro was upset about the cost of ensuring its world-wide plants complied with the rule.

Mr. Cole also decided to seek outright limits on sock imports from China. While the U.S. had agreed to lift all quotas by the end of 2004, it retained the authority to impose annual "safeguards" for up to three years to protect against a flood of Chinese imports. In early 2003, Mr. Cole began meeting with lobbyists and government officials to get such safeguards put in place. He worked in particular to woo Jim Leonard, the Commerce Department's lead official on textile policy and the head of a government interagency group that rules on safeguard petitions.

In September of that year, Mr. Leonard visited Fort Payne, meeting with mill workers and executives over two days. On his first night in town, Mr. Cole set up a dinner at the old DeKalb Theater, catered by the Western Sizzlin'. Mr. Leonard remembers his name was on the marquee, along with "letters about a foot high" reading SOS. That stood for Save Our Socks. During the dinner, Mr. Leonard spoke of the steps the Bush administration was taking to promote trade.

The next day, Mr. Leonard toured several mills. He was impressed that mill owners were installing new machines and workers were trying to get more productive. "They're doing the right kinds of things," he says. "They're trying to be as competitive as possible, so they can survive." Mr. Leonard says the Bush administration also heard the views of companies on the other side of the trade issue.

In June 2004, a petition was filed on behalf of the Hosiery Association committee Mr. Cole chaired, requesting limits on imports from China of cotton, wool and man-made fiber socks. A few weeks later, the administration agreed to consider the petition. It had up to 90 days to make a final decision -- putting the deadline right before the Nov. 2 presidential election.

On Oct. 22, the Bush administration approved the petition for a one-year limit on sock imports from China. Then on Nov. 19 Congress passed a trade bill that included the labeling mandate. Mr. Bush later signed it, and the administration is now getting ready to implement it.

As of May 12, sock imports hit their cap under the limit imposed last October, meaning socks from China will be barred until this October when the limit comes up for renewal. Mr. Nichols is slowing development of the China project. Instead of going "200 miles an hour," he says, "we've put it down to about 50."
But Mr. Nichols thinks the U.S. attempts to curb imports will ultimately prove powerless to stop globalized production. "Hell, there are a lot of places you can make goods cheaply besides China," he says. "Things are fluid. You stop China, things will come in from elsewhere. It's kind of stupid."

Even some of Fort Payne's sock makers seem to agree that they must look overseas. In February of this year, Mr. Cole's brother, Bobby Cole, president of Prewett Associated Mills, the largest of Fort Payne's sock makers, announced the firm would soon begin "sourcing product offshore." In April, Prewett began shutting down one of its finishing plants in stages, costing about 50 workers their jobs.

日韓分享北韓情報難產,肇因美國不信任南韓

  根據韓國『東亞日報』24日的報導,日本外務省事務次官谷內正太郎曾在10日向訪問日本的南韓國會議員表示:「因為美國不信任韓國,所以日本對與韓國分享北韓情報的問題感到為難。」

  由於日本情報蒐集衛星機能不彰,這個問題在去年北韓蕈狀雲爆炸事件時曾被披露,因而目前日本在北韓方面的情報,完全來自美國,所以日本與南韓分享情報的問題,等於是南韓要跟美國拿情報的問題。谷內甚至質疑南韓的立場並迂迴表示:「六方會談中,美國和日本在右側,中國和北韓在左側,而韓國似乎是在中間靠向左側(中國和北韓)。」

  在日本外務官僚中屬鷹派的谷內正太郎,是在與南韓朝野國會議員的私人會面下所進行的發言,但消息傳出並經媒體披露後,引起韓國當局的不滿,韓國外交通商部因此向日本外務省提出了強烈抗議。

  美國對南韓的不信任感確實在近年急遽擴大,當然這也是南韓多數民意的轉向的結果。南韓瀰漫著反美、自立的路線,因而對北韓政策也較寬容、務實,與美日作法顯然不符。(2005/5/25)

日韓情報分享風波,韓否認美韓關係生變

  韓國外交部25日就韓美首腦會談表示意見,並以強硬的語氣否認最近不斷提出的韓美同盟出現異常的說法。由於日本外務次官谷內正太郎發言:「美國不相信韓國,因此不能同意日韓情報分享」一事,在韓國造成了風波,也因此韓美關係質變的說法受到矚目。  韓國國防部長官尹光雄在國會表示:「韓日間目前沒有軍事情報的合作,但美國分別向韓國和日本提供必要的情報,谷內正太郎似乎理解錯誤。」

  至於谷內正太郎本人則在25日回應:「我很遺憾非正式的意見交換內容居然對外公開。對於非正式的內容我也不做回應。」韓國青瓦台26日也批評日本外交單位「無禮,不合乎外交慣例。」(2005/5/26)

Snow in Senate

Snow repeats call for China forex reform
By Glenn Somerville
ReutersThursday, May 26, 2005; 10:55 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated on Thursday that China can and must adopt a flexible currency to help ease trade tensions with the United States and the rest of the world.

In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee -- parts of which were published in advance in the Wall Street Journal -- Snow said the U.S. cannot shrink its trade deficit without the help of key trade partners.

Not only must China make its yuan currency more flexible, which U.S. competitors say would let its value rise relative to the dollar, but Europe and Japan must do more to spur their economies and to create demand for American-made goods.

As the hearing opened, committee members made clear they are upset with China and prepared to initiate legislative action -- something the U.S. Treasury is aiming to head off -- unless China accepts that its currency is undervalued.

"China wants the advantages of free trade and not the responsibilities," said New York Democratic Senator Charles Schumer. "When they have an advantage, they're all for free trade.

"When they have a disadvantage, they come up with all sorts of reasons, excuses or just abject violation of trade rules to avoid it," Schumer added.
The U.S. Treasury chief said the United States needs cooperation from its trade partners. including Asia.

"Our actions alone will not be sufficient to unwind global imbalances," Snow said. "Simply put, large imbalances will continue if growth in our major trading partners continues to lag."

Snow's remarks set a stern tone ahead of a scheduled June 10-11 meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven -- the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan -- in London June 9-11.

It was unclear whether China will send representatives to the London meeting, but it has let it be known it will introduce currency reform on its own terms and timing.

Snow was testifying on a report issued last week, in which Treasury found no major trade partner, including China, currently manipulates its currency for trade advantage. However, he repeated the report's admonition that China faces being named as a manipulator -- potentially making it liable to trade retaliation -- unless it adopts a more flexible currency.

China currently pegs its yuan, also known as the renminbi, at about 8.28 to the dollar, a practice that angry U.S. manufacturers and lawmakers claim leaves Chinese imports as much as 40 percent undervalued and makes it impossible for American companies to compete.

"China's rigid currency regime has become highly distortionary," Snow said. "It poses risks to the Chinese economy, such as sowing the seeds for excess liquidity creation, asset price inflation, large speculative capital flows, and over-investment."

Snow said China's pegged currency also was a threat to its neighbors, given China's growing might as a trading power and the need for it to contribute to sustained global expansion.

At the moment, Snow said, the global economy was experiencing robust growth and he expected the U.S. economy also to keep growing strongly.

He acknowledged the United States has large trade and budget deficits but spurned the idea of setting a target for an acceptable level of deficit on the current account, which measures trade in goods, services and capital.

"We do not, and will not, have a current account target," Snow said, adding the best course of action for the United States was to keep the economy growing solidly.

But Europe and Japan need to do more.

"Simply put, large imbalances will continue if growth in our major trading partners continues to lag," Snow said, referring to Japan and Europe.

"These economies must continue to adopt and implement vigorous and necessary structural reforms to establish robust rates of growth -- both for the good of their own citizens and to contribute to reductions in the imbalances in the global economy."

Treasury Secretary John Snow Testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on the Treasury Department's "Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies."

WSJ : China's Obligation Snow's Opinion article in WSJ.

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

NYT : Death by a Thousand Blogs

May 24, 2005
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF Beijing

The Chinese Communist Party survived a brutal civil war with the Nationalists, battles with American forces in Korea and massive pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen Square. But now it may finally have met its match - the Internet.

The collision between the Internet and Chinese authorities is one of the grand wrestling matches of history, visible in part at www.yuluncn.com.

That's the Web site of a self-appointed journalist named Li Xinde. He made a modest fortune selling Chinese medicine around the country, and now he's started the Chinese Public Opinion Surveillance Net - one of four million blogs in China.

Mr. Li travels around China with an I.B.M. laptop and a digital camera, investigating cases of official wrongdoing. Then he writes about them on his Web site and skips town before the local authorities can arrest him.

His biggest case so far involved a deputy mayor of Jining who is accused of stealing more than $400,000 and operating like a warlord. One of the deputy mayor's victims was a businesswoman whom he allegedly harassed and tried to kidnap.

Mr. Li's Web site published an investigative report, including a series of photos showing the deputy mayor kneeling and crying, apparently begging not to be reported to the police. The photos caused a sensation, and the deputy mayor was soon arrested.

Another of Mr. Li's campaigns involved a young peasant woman who was kidnapped by family planning officials, imprisoned and forcibly fitted with an IUD. Embarrassed by the reports, the authorities sent the officials responsible to jail for a year.

When I caught up with Mr. Li, he was investigating the mysterious death of a businessman who got in a financial dispute with a policeman and ended up arrested and then dead.

All this underscores how the Internet is beginning to play the watchdog role in China that the press plays in the West. The Internet is also eroding the leadership's monopoly on information and is complicating the traditional policy of "nei jin wai song" - cracking down at home while pretending to foreigners to be wide open.

My old friends in the Chinese news media and the Communist Party are mostly aghast at President Hu Jintao's revival of ideological slogans, praise for North Korea's political system and crackdown on the media. The former leaders Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji are also said to be appalled.

Yet China, fortunately, is bigger than its emperor. Some 100 million Chinese now surf the Web, and e-mail and Web chat rooms are ubiquitous.

The authorities have arrested a growing number of Web dissidents. But there just aren't enough police to control the Internet, and when sites are banned, Chinese get around them with proxy servers.

One of the leaders of the Tiananmen democracy movement, Chen Ziming, is now out of prison and regularly posts essays on an Internet site. Jiao Guobiao, a scholar, is officially blacklisted but writes scathing essays that circulate by e-mail all around China. One senior government official told me that he doesn't bother to read Communist Party documents any more, but he never misses a Jiao Guobiao essay.

I tried my own experiment, posting comments on Internet chat rooms. In a Chinese-language chat room on Sohu.com, I called for multiparty elections and said, "If Chinese on the other side of the Taiwan Strait can choose their leaders, why can't we choose our leaders?" That went on the site automatically, like all other messages. But after 10 minutes, the censor spotted it and removed it.

Then I toned it down: "Under the Communist Party's great leadership, China has changed tremendously. I wonder if in 20 years the party will introduce competing parties, because that could benefit us greatly." That stayed up for all to see, even though any Chinese would read it as an implicit call for a multiparty system.

So where is China going? I think the Internet is hastening China along the same path that South Korea, Chile and especially Taiwan pioneered. In each place, a booming economy nurtured a middle class, rising education, increased international contact and a growing squeamishness about torturing dissidents.

President Hu has fulminated in private speeches that foreign "hostile forces" are trying to change China. Yup, count me in - anybody who loves China as I do would be hostile to an empty Mao suit like Mr. Hu. But it's the Chinese leadership itself that is digging the Communist Party's grave, by giving the Chinese people broadband.

WSJ : US Opposition to China Textiles Could Endanger Plans for Yuan

News Analysis By DAVID WESSEL [David Wessel, who has covered domestic and international economic policy for 20 years, is deputy Washington bureau of The Wall Street Journal and writes the weekly Capital column.]

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL May 20, 2005

The Bush administration's tough talk toward China could backfire.

This week or next, the White House will "request consultations" with China over surging imports of certain Chinese clothing and yarn, a step that will allow the U.S. to put a cap the increase.

That'll please those members of Congress who are pushing for measures to protect U.S. manufacturers overwhelmed by Chinese imports. But it may lead China to dig in its heels on what the administration really wants and thinks the global economy sorely needs: a long-promised move by China to let its currency, the yuan, rise against the dollar.

As politicians are well aware, Americans now see China as a huge economic threat, Republicans even more than Democrats. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that 55% of Democrats and 68% of Republicans deem China an "economic competitor."

All this recalls U.S. trade tiffs with Tokyo. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the U.S. complained about imports from Japan, threatened quotas or other trade barriers, sought a stronger Japanese yen and lectured Japan on how best to strengthen its economy (and its appetite for U.S. goods).

Japan reacted differently than China has: It agreed to significant "voluntary" restraints on exports of auto and steel to the U.S. It put money into factories in the U.S. and U.S. marketing of Japanese brand names. Its leaders often welcomed gaiatsu, or foreign pressure, to help its procrastination-prone system make necessary but unpopular changes.

China is different -- and so are the times.


Despite pointed Chinese complaints about the lack of America's adherence to the free-trade principles it espouses, the U.S. is within its rights under the World Trade Organization rules to limit the surge of imported apparel from China, trade lawyers say. And, though China is imposing new fees on some of its exports in response to U.S. and European yelping, a 1980s-style "voluntary restraint agreement" actually would be illegal under WTO rules.

Chinese economic technocrats are sympathetic to lectures from the U.S. Treasury: China would be better off relying less on exports and more on satisfying its own consumers. Prospects for stable growth, both in China and around the world, would improve if China let its currency rise; flexible exchange rates have proven to be good shock absorbers. China is tinkering with rules to get ready for the day when markets have more say, and bureaucrats less, over the exchange rate and interest rates.

A modest increase in the yuan's value wouldn't put a big dent in Chinese exports but would allow the Bush administration to reassure Congress that China is doing something to blunt its trade advantage.

The decision on when and how to let the yuan rise won't be made by techocrats conversant in the language of markets. It will be made by Chinese political leaders, many of whom recall the woes that flexible exchange rates caused other Asian economies in the late 1990s.

Besides, Chinese leaders don't welcome gaiatsu the way the Japanese did. China sees itself "as making a major effort to establish an environment in which currency won't be de-stabilizing, and it sees that Washington is too busy taking (what China perceives to be) cheap shots to acknowledge these efforts," says the G7 Group advisory firm. "For China, it's not only about saving face, but about 'caving in' to outside pressure, in particular to the U.S. A cave-in would erode the domestic political capital of the current Chinese administration."

In contrast to Japan, China does change. The question is whether it'll change something -- anything -- visibly enough and soon enough to allow the Bush administration to claim victory and deflect protectionist pressure from Capitol Hill.

Write to David Wessel at david.wessel@wsj.com

Sunday, May 22, 2005

Bush's reverse in US-China trade policy

Recent development on US-China relationship is disturbing. If WSJ : Engaging China Is Delicate Dance report is right, Bush's administration is trying to "cross-lanes" and wish to pack various issues in a basket. This may be a good Bush's administration PR show, but it will certainly be counter-productive and dangerous.

Executive branch absolutely know china trade is not the cause of trade deficit.

As 2005 Economic Report of the President (P184-185) reported : "In fact, the data suggest that the increased imports from China are largely coming at the expense of imports from other countries in the Pacific Rim (Chart 8-3). This change is due in large part to China's role as a final assembly platform for exports for Asian manufacturing firms. The total share of imports from the Pacific Rim has fallen from its recent high in the mid-1990s. This helps to emonstrate why bilateral trade deficits have little economic significance and why they are not a useful measure of the benefits of a trading relationship; these bilateral measures can be driven by a reallocation of trade among partners of the sort that is common in a world of hundreds of trading nations." (The Chart 8-3 is a must read graph on US-China trade relationship.)

Indeed, Bush's administration latest reverse in trade policy seem more likely be a reaction to domestic politic than a respond to international economic “problem”.

According to WSJ : Approval of Congress Erodes in Survey , a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll (WSJ/NBC News poll\r\n) shows that disapproval of Congress\'s performance is higher than it has been since 1994, the year voters swept Democrats out of power on Capitol Hill. Most interesting of all, the poll show that by 49%-12%, Americans say Mr. Bush and his administration are placing "too much emphasis" on Iraq and by margins of 65%-1% and 64%-9% say Mr. Bush is placing "too little emphasis" on the "job & economy" and "gas prices", respectively. "Jobs and Economic" is at the top of the "too little emphasis" list.

Unfortunately, globalization is a mega trend that no one can reverse without paying a high price. Hence, it is almost a mission impossible to solve "jobs" problem in low skill sector. However, it is always easy to blame someone else and especially the obvious target -- "Red" China. (NYT Editorial : The Yuan Diversion)

Globalization is a big challenge for everybody in every industry and every country nowaday. As PBS's documentary program "Commanding Heights" (based upon the book of the same name by CERA's Daniel Yerginand Joseph Stanislaw) concluded, "the last time in history that human races face the same degree of free trade and globalization was 18th century. how we cope with the post-cold war globalization is remain a challenge to this generation."

God bless human races.

Saturday, May 21, 2005

Paul Krugman : The Chinese Connection

May 20, 2005
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Stories about the new Treasury report condemning China's currency policy probably had most readers going, "Huh?" Frankly, this is an issue that confuses professional economists, too. But let me try to explain what's going on.

Over the last few years China, for its own reasons, has acted as an enabler both of U.S. fiscal irresponsibility and of a return to Nasdaq-style speculative mania, this time in the housing market. Now the U.S. government is finally admitting that there's a problem - but it's asserting that the problem is China's, not ours.

And there's no sign that anyone in the administration has faced up to an unpleasant reality: the U.S. economy has become dependent on low-interest loans from China and other foreign governments, and it's likely to have major problems when those loans are no longer forthcoming.

Here's how the U.S.-China economic relationship currently works:

Money is pouring into China, both because of its rapidly rising trade surplus and because of investments by Western and Japanese companies. Normally, this inflow of funds would be self-correcting: both China's trade surplus and the foreign investment pouring in would push up the value of the yuan, China's currency, making China's exports less competitive and shrinking its trade surplus.

But the Chinese government, unwilling to let that happen, has kept the yuan down by shipping the incoming funds right back out again, buying huge quantities of dollar assets - about $200 billion worth in 2004, and possibly as much as $300 billion worth this year. This is economically perverse: China, a poor country where capital is still scarce by Western standards, is lending vast sums at low interest rates to the United States.

Yet the U.S. has become dependent on this perverse behavior. Dollar purchases by China and other foreign governments have temporarily insulated the U.S. economy from the effects of huge budget deficits. This money flowing in from abroad has kept U.S. interest rates low despite the enormous government borrowing required to cover the budget deficit.

Low interest rates, in turn, have been crucial to America's housing boom. And soaring house prices don't just create construction jobs; they also support consumer spending because many homeowners have converted rising house values into cash by refinancing their mortgages.

So why is the U.S. government complaining? The Treasury report says nothing at all about how China's currency policy affects the United States - all it offers on the domestic side is the usual sycophantic praise for administration policy. Instead, it focuses on the disadvantages of Chinese policy for the Chinese themselves. Since when is that a major U.S. concern?

In reality, of course, the administration doesn't care about the Chinese economy. It's complaining about the yuan because of political pressure from U.S. manufacturers, which are angry about those Chinese trade surpluses. So it's all politics. And that's the problem: when policy decisions are made on purely political grounds, nobody thinks through their real-world consequences.

Here's what I think will happen if and when China changes its currency policy, and those cheap loans are no longer available. U.S. interest rates will rise; the housing bubble will probably burst; construction employment and consumer spending will both fall; falling home prices may lead to a wave of bankruptcies. And we'll suddenly wonder why anyone thought financing the budget deficit was easy.

In other words, we've developed an addiction to Chinese dollar purchases, and will suffer painful withdrawal symptoms when they come to an end.

I'm not saying we should try to maintain the status quo. Addictions must be broken, and the sooner the better. After all, one of these days China will stop buying dollars of its own accord.

And the housing bubble will eventually burst whatever we do. Besides, in the long run, ending our dependence on foreign dollar purchases will give us a healthier economy. In particular, a rise in the yuan and other Asian currencies will eventually make U.S. manufacturing, which has lost three million jobs since 2000, more competitive.

But the negative effects of a change in Chinese currency policy will probably be immediate, while the positive effects may take years to materialize. And as far as I can tell, nobody in a position of power is thinking about how we'll deal with the consequences if China actually gives in to U.S. demands, and lets the yuan rise.

NYT Editorial : The Yuan Diversion

Published: May 21, 2005

The get-tough-on-China talk got tougher this week when Treasury Secretary John Snow announced that China risks being branded a currency manipulator - and thus subject to sanctions - unless it acts soon to increase the fixed exchange rate between its currency, the yuan, and the United States dollar. Mr. Snow was echoing American manufacturers and some members of Congress who complain that China is undervaluing the yuan to artificially depress its export prices. But his aim is only partly to prod China. By demanding action, he is also trying to defuse growing anti-Chinese sentiment, as evidenced by the Senate's threat last month to slap punitive tariffs on Chinese goods unless the yuan is revalued.

Given America's difficult trade issues with China - patent and copyright violations, barriers to American goods and services - why are Congress and the administration fixating on the yuan?

The Chinese currency is undervalued and that situation must be remedied, both in order for China to gain more control over its own economy and to improve international trade relations. But even a sharp upward revaluation wouldn't do much to reduce the United States' immense trade imbalances because China accounts for just a fraction of America's overall trade, and American consumers are unlikely to shun Chinese products even if their prices rise.

One reason for the fuss is that it's easier to exploit the yuan than to remedy the loss of American manufacturing jobs. For years, the United States has pursued global trade without adopting programs to fix its negative side effects, chief among them the lost jobs in generally low-skilled industries, like textiles. Nor are there policies to prepare displaced workers for better employment, like tax credits for companies to provide more training.

Focusing on the yuan also deflects the blame for America's role in promoting global imbalances.

Mr. Snow has acknowledged that the United States' federal budget deficit distorts global trade and investment. But, incredibly, he has also said that the United States is "aggressively tackling" its deficit with "appropriate fiscal policy." That statement might be valid if President Bush and his Congressional allies gave up their drive to extend Mr. Bush's first-term tax cuts permanently or if Mr. Bush abandoned his plan to borrow trillions of dollars to privatize Social Security. But there are no such reversals in sight. Contrary to Mr. Snow's assertion, then, the United States is not "doing its part" to address global imbalances.

Washington relies greatly on China for the funds to finance its deficits. Rather than positioning ourselves as China's adversary, it would be wise to cooperate, starting with honest discussion.

NYT : Off the Hill, and Leading the Charge on Trade

By ELIZABETH BECKER
Published: May 21, 2005

WASHINGTON, May 20 - What most surprises Rob Portman, who served in Congress for six terms, is how much time he still spends dealing with politics on Capitol Hill as the new United States trade representative.

Rob Portman, the nation's new trade representative, spent six terms in the House and has supporters in both parties.

His days have been filled with long conversations, trying to sway lawmakers to approve a trade pact with Central America. He is figuring out a strategy with Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, on how to neutralize the sugar lobby.

He adjusted a section on textiles in the pact to satisfy Senator Elizabeth Dole, Republican of North Carolina. And he is negotiating over labor issues with Representative Charles B. Rangel, Democrat of New York, in hopes of bringing his vote into the administration's column.

"I knew the trade representative was close to the Hill, but I didn't know how much," he said in his first extensive interview in his office across the street from the White House. "This level of consultation with Congress isn't shared by any other cabinet member."

Mr. Portman has had to hit the ground running.

He has inherited the worst trade deficit in history - $617 billion last year - and that has made many lawmakers suspicious of any further trade agreements. The teetering round of global trade talks, if they are to have any hope of succeeding, will require reducing agricultural subsidies in rich nations, including the United States.

Talk about a tough political task. At least he has a little time on that front. But within weeks, Mr. Portman has to resolve the Boeing-Airbus dispute with Europe over government subsidies - or it will go to the World Trade Organization and become the most expensive trade dispute ever put before that body.

Mr. Portman, still on a honeymoon in the job, has a narrow path to tread. Many developing countries question the rich nations' commitments to open and fair trade. At home, lawmakers worry that rapid globalization is responsible for the loss of some of their constituents' jobs.
Democrats have said that they do not want to approve any trade deal until the Bush administration presents a workable vision of how to reduce the trade deficit. One of Mr. Portman's ideas is to create a position dedicated solely to enforcing trade laws more stringently.

"If we're going to maintain our standard of living," he said, "then we need to be more aggressive in enforcing trade laws."

One major issue for Mr. Portman is trade with China. He said he had already ordered his lawyers to collect enough evidence from American industry to file a case at the W.T.O. against China if he did not see "dramatic progress" in protecting intellectual property rights from rampant pirating and copying.

"We cannot expect the United States to continue to rely on promises of enforcement when we are not seeing results," he said.

Mr. Portman, a boyish-looking 49-year-old Ohioan who exudes a Midwestern probity without the arrogance that often accompanies a long stint in the House, not only takes all this in stride, he is invigorated by the debate. "I've really loved the job so far," he said.

He is unique not only for being the first member of Congress to hold the trade position but for the political pedigree he brings to the job. Known for his hard work and modesty, he has unusually close friendships with Democrats as well as Republicans. He is so close to the president and his inner circle that he acted as a bridge between the House and the White House while still in Congress.

The son of a self-made Cincinnati business executive, Mr. Portman was drawn to foreign travel early, studying in Sweden as a high school student, then in the Loire Valley of France while in college. After earning his law degree, he worked in Washington firms practicing international trade law, traveling to Europe and South America, but also jumping into Republican politics.

He served in the White House of the first President Bush and in the first campaign of the current president. He is credited with helping to ensure that Ohio backed the president in the last election.

His first triumph came overseas, in Paris, within 48 hours of his confirmation. Mr. Portman played the middleman in global trade discussions on a technical point of European agriculture policy.

He worked with Peter Mandelson, the European Union's senior trade official. If the senior officials of the world's two biggest economies cannot agree, global trade talks usually fail. The two worked well together.

"He came across more as a seasoned negotiator than a congressman," Mr. Mandelson said. "He was on the top of his brief, but he also had a good feel for people. There is no question his close relationship with the president gives him an uncommon confidence."

Mr. Portman's predecessor, Robert B. Zoellick , now deputy secretary of state, was known for his strong sense of strategy and for wearing his intellectualism on his sleeve. By contrast, Mr. Portman has won points for his unassuming mastery of the fine points of trade esoterica.
Representative Sherrod Brown, a Democrat and fellow Ohioan, said that Mr. Portman was popular on the Hill but still had to defend an unpopular trade policy.

"He has to answer the question, How did the trade deficit grow to $617 billion under President Bush and why does that mean we should continue with the President's trade agenda?" Mr. Brown said. "Many Americans will say it hasn't benefited them at all."

Mr. Portman, his coat jacket draped across a chair, sipped lemonade and thought about that. He said the problem was not that simple.

"It's a reality in Ohio that there is a lot of concern about trade, but it is not practical to pull up the ladder," he said. "My role is to expand exports, and then I can make a difference."

RAND : China's Defense Spending Lower Than Previous Estimates

China's defense spending is estimated to be between 2.3 and 2.8 percent of the nation's GDP. This is 40 to 70 percent higher than official Chinese government figures, but substantially lower than previous outside estimates of the share of GDP devoted to defense.

Full Document

Friday, May 20, 2005

布殊政府政策轉向

美國繼續在對華貿易及人民幣問題上加碼,美國財政部長斯諾宣佈任命Olin Wethington為新設立的中國特使一職。斯諾表示,此舉是加強「與中國保持持續及緊密建設性對話」的一部份。

正如日前《華爾街日報》引述消息人士指出,白宮正全面檢討對華貿易及經濟政策,並將於數周內有決定。近期國會對中國貿易及人民幣問題的「敵意」,出乎白宮意料之內,在國會壓力下,白宮及美國政府正全面檢討對華貿易及經濟政策,新任美國貿易代表Rob Portman正就對華貿易進行「由頭到尾」(top to bottom)重新檢討(fresh examination),其中包括考慮是否以更嚴厲的制裁控制貿易操守(如反傾銷法)。( http://midnightoil-society.blogspot.com/2005/05/wsj-engaging-china-is-delicate-dance.html)

據「華爾街日報/NBC」的最新民調指出,共和黨支持者對現任國會議員的支持比例大降,同時49%受訪美國人認為布殊政府「花太多精力在伊拉克問題」,65%人認為布殊政府「花太少精力在經濟問題」上。(http://midnightoil-society.blogspot.com/2005/05/wsj-approval-of-congress-erodes-in.html) (http://midnightoil-society.blogspot.com/2005/05/nyt-bushs-choice-anger-china-or.html)

正如香港理工大學中國商業中心研究員、美國布魯金斯研究所訪問研究員朱文暉在5月20日《明報》發表的「從美國政局看中美經貿戰」中指出,對華貿易及人民幣問題的局勢在這幾個月發生逆轉,主要是美國國內政治造成的。 

第一,美國國內新老保守勢力要求遏制中國的聲音增強,雖然尚未達到1998至99年那種草木皆兵的狀態,但已經從過去幾年的低潮中迅速反彈。其原因包括美軍在伊拉克的戰事終於見到曙光,反恐在美國國內政治中的效用遞減,中國的領導權力圓滿交接等等。

第二,布殊行政部門的力量開始弱化。在第一任內,布殊是在將中國視為「戰略競爭對手」的定位中上台的,他的這個立場,有效地約束了那些保守勢力的盲動傾向。而近年來布殊政府調整對中國的立場,其新任國務卿賴斯聲稱樂於見到「一個自信、和平和繁榮的中國」,這個定位已經於上述保守勢力南轅北轍。而美國總統的第二任期,往往又是不經意當中就進入「跛腳鴨」狀態的時期,布殊推動得讓西半球移民合法工作計劃、社會保障制度改革機會,在共和黨內外都受到了空前的挑戰。 應該說,在美國的國內政治中,這個時候的布殊,已經不是一年前的強勢政府了,他不能不順應國會的聲音,美國商務部宣布對中國3種紡織品設立7.5%的進口增長上限,應屬意料之中。 

第三,中國政府對美國國內政局演變之快應變不夠主動,沒有將危機化解於萌芽狀態。應該說,近年來中國在台灣問題上大大加強了對美國各界的工作,也取得了應有的成效(如《反分裂法》通過前後的外交活動),但在經貿領域,中國顯然沒有在政經結合部投入足夠的資源,沒有考慮到經濟問題可能被政治勢力操控的嚴重性,終於令人民幣匯率成為各種反中力量集合的藉口。事實上,我們回過頭來向,如果人民幣在美國的政治壓力尚未形成之前就已經小幅度波動,或者在美國總統大選的高潮中浮動,它都不會像今天般引人注目。

明年美國國會將舉行中期選舉,上述民調反映美國國會及布殊政府的政策轉向。相信未來一段時間,中美就貿易、人民幣升值、中國投資美國國債、能源以至政治等議題上,將十分可能繼續升溫。

Thursday, May 19, 2005

WSJ : Approval of Congress Erodes in Survey


By JOHN HARWOOD Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

May 19, 2005; Page A3


A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll (WSJ/NBC News poll) shows that disapproval of Congress's performance is higher than it has been since 1994, the year voters swept Democrats out of power on Capitol Hill. Americans have grown gloomier about the nation's direction, the economy and Iraq, and by 65%-17% they say Congress doesn't share their priorities.

"If you're a member of Congress ... you'd better be looking over your shoulder," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC survey. His Republican counterpart, Bill McInturff, adds that a particular concern for incumbents looking to 2006 is unhappiness among senior citizens, a group that disproportionately turns out to vote in midterm elections.

While the survey contains warning signs for members of both parties, it is especially problematic for Republicans as the party in power at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. The poll of 1,005 adults, conducted May 12-16, shows that the greatest erosion in congressional approval has occurred among self-described Republicans. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points.

Just 42% of Americans say their representative deserves to be re-elected, while a 45% plurality calls it time for someone new. When Americans are asked which party they want to control Congress after the 2006 elections, Democrats hold a 47%-40% edge -- the party's best showing since the Journal/NBC survey began asking that question in 1994.

The 18 months between now and the 2006 midterms give incumbents plenty of time to affect the public mood, and Republicans can take solace in the fact that the Democratic Party's image hasn't improved. The dearth of competitive House seats and the fact that Democrats have more Senate seats at risk means the minority party on Capitol Hill needs a large and lasting shift in sentiment to have any hope of recapturing control.

The survey shows a growing sense of disconnection between official Washington and ordinary Americans. "There's a gap between perceptions of President Bush's and Congress's agendas and the public's agenda," Mr. McInturff says.

That is reflected in the attitude of respondents like Jodie Baca, a 57-year-old waitress in Bernalillo, N.M. "They should focus a little bit more" on the economy, says the self-described "strong Republican" voter. "If the gas prices go up, our minimum wages should go up -- like soon," she says. Now, she says, she's having second thoughts about her vote last November for Republican Rep. Heather Wilson.

Escalating violence in Iraq, which has left many Americans pessimistic about prospects there, may be part of the problem. By 49%-12%, Americans say Mr. Bush and his administration are placing "too much emphasis" on Iraq and by margins of 65%-1% and 64%-9% say Mr. Bush is placing "too little emphasis" on the economy and gas prices, respectively.

Nor are incumbents helped by Washington's battles over John Bolton's nomination for United Nations ambassador and the "nuclear option" for ending judicial filibusters. Just 13% of Americans say Mr. Bush and Congress are working together to end gridlock, while 80% say things will remain the same in Washington. That is a much dimmer view than Americans took just two years ago, when 41% said Congress and the president were working to end gridlock.

Mr. Bush's overall ratings are essentially unchanged since April; the 47% of Americans who approve of his job performance match the 47% who disapprove. But in three specific areas -- handling the economy, handling foreign policy generally and handling Iraq -- narrow majorities disapprove of his performance.

But Mr. Bush's ratings look robust alongside those of Congress. Just 33% approve of lawmakers' performance while 51% disapprove, nearly matching the 32%-56% rating Congress received six months before the "Republican revolution" of 1994. While assessments by Democrats and independents slipped slightly since April, approval of Congress by Republicans dropped by 11 percentage points to 45%.

The ethics cloud over House Majority Leader Tom DeLay is attracting public notice. By 52%-12%, Americans say Congress should investigate the Texan's travel and relationships with lobbyists. Though just over half of Americans don't know who Mr. DeLay is or have a neutral opinion, the rest view him negatively by a two-to-one margin.

Republicans on Capitol Hill have lately tried to move the spotlight from ethics by emphasizing steps they have taken that they say will improve the economy, including changes in laws governing bankruptcy and class-action litigation. The poll shows they have good reason for trying. The 42% of Americans who say the economy has gotten worse in the past 12 months is the highest in nearly two years. The proportion predicting it will get worse in the next 12 months has nearly doubled, to 30%, since January.

On Social Security, public skepticism toward Mr. Bush's main domestic priority hasn't eased since April. As the White House prods Republican lawmakers to act, Americans by 56%-36% call it a "bad idea" to allow workers to invest Social Security contributions in the stock market.

Mr. Bush has tapped a popular idea with the suggestion of trimming future benefits more for higher-income seniors than for lower-income seniors if cuts become necessary. But just 14% of Americans -- the same as in January before Mr. Bush's overhaul campaign -- say the Social Security system is "in crisis."

Support for the administration's initiative has dropped among older Americans, whom Mr. Bush has tried to reassure by saying they would be unaffected. By 58%-29%, those 65 and over say the country is "off on the wrong track."

"Seniors are pretty riled," Mr. McInturff says, and if it persists "that has consequences in midterm elections."

Washington Post : China's Trade Edge Less Than It Seems

Thursday, May 19, 2005; Page A26

Robert J. Samuelson's May 4 op-ed column, "A Trade Tightrope With China," repeated common misunderstandings about China's currency and economy that increase the risks of protectionism.

Instead of its trade surplus with the United States, economists agree, China's global surplus is a better test of its exchange-rate fairness. An unfairly cheap currency would result in a large global surplus. China's surplus with America is a quarter of the U.S. trade deficit, but the most widely accepted statistics show that China's global surplus accounts for only 8 percent of that deficit. Global surpluses from Japan, Germany and indeed the whole euro currency area account for more than 40 percent of the U.S. deficit. Including oil-exporting nations and the rest of Asia except China raises the combined global surplus to more than 75 percent of the U.S. deficit.

China can have a surplus with the United States while its global surplus is so small because of its large trade deficit with its neighbors. In recent years these neighbors have rerouted their exports to the United States through China for final assembly. Exports from the rest of Asia to the United States declined from 2000 to 2004 as reexports through China grew. China's much smaller global surplus indicates its exchange rate does not provide unfair advantage in trade.

A shift in China's exchange rate also is unlikely to alter the export-led growth strategies of the rest of Asia, which reflect not competition with China but their failure to stimulate domestic demand.

Neglecting to note these global and regional dimensions contributes to misguided protectionist threats against China.

ALBERT KEIDEL
Senior Associate
China Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Washington

WSJ : Engaging China Is Delicate Dance

Mindful of Congress, yet Needing Beijing on North Korea Problem,
White House Picks Fights Carefully

By JAY SOLOMON and GREG HITT Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL May 18, 2005; Page A4

As anti-China sentiment rises in Washington, the Bush administration is caught in a complex balancing act: bashing Beijing enough to appease critics in Congress and stir action -- without provoking a trans-Pacific backlash.

The U.S. is exerting pressure on economic issues and criticizing China's human-rights policy and belligerence toward Taiwan, just as it is begging Chinese leaders for more help in curbing nuclear weapons in North Korea and hoping China won't cozy up to anti-American governments in places such as Venezuela.

"If we push too hard, this could cool China's ardor for helping us" on a number of issues, says David M. Lampton, director of China studies at the Nixon Center in Washington. Mr. Lampton says China also could potentially retaliate, for example, by shifting investments from U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

Complicating the White House calculus is soaring hostility on Capitol Hill, which some administration officials call "off the charts." Congress has largely deferred to President Bush's foreign-policy priorities, especially since Sept. 11, 2001, but China policy is one area where legislators are demanding a change of course, particularly on trade.

Nobody has felt that more than Treasury Secretary John Snow, who recently went to the Senate to testify about his department's budget and found himself in a hearing rife with anti-China anger. "China wants us to be a sponge for all their trinkets and trousers and shirts and shoes and all the things they produce, including high-tech, and yet, they don't want to open their market to us,"

Democratic North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan lectured the cabinet member, adding: "We sit around without the will, the nerve or the backbone to say this is nonsense; we're not going to put up with this anymore."

"Well, senator, I'm not at all happy with the situation," Mr. Snow responded. "There's a lot to be fixed there."

He stopped short of issuing a specific threat. And his report yesterday on Chinese currency practices continued that dance -- urging the Chinese to change their fixed exchange rate, yet not launching the process that could lead to direct retaliation.

The currency report came less than a week after the administration slapped new curbs on Chinese textile imports. The moves mark China's return to center stage of the American diplomacy debate -- a role Beijing assumed in the early days of Mr. Bush's presidency, before the spotlight shifted to terrorism and Iraq.

Officials across the administration are reviewing China policy. Rob Portman, the new U.S. Trade Representative, is making "market access" the focus of a fresh examination of economic policy toward the mainland. Among the issues under scrutiny: whether the U.S. should make more aggressive use of sanctions, such as antidumping laws, to control trade practices. His office's experts have begun what Mr. Portman describes as a "top to bottom" review of the agency's China policy.

Within the White House, officials are discussing broadening the China policy review launched by Mr. Portman to encompass the Treasury and Commerce Departments, which share in policy making on trade and international economics. A decision could come in a few weeks.

That study comes as the State Department is preparing separately to open talks with China that will focus on what one U.S. official called the "nexus between economics and national security."

Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick will lead the talks, expected to begin this summer in Beijing. The dialogue was requested in the fall by Chinese President Hu Jintao, and the White House has embraced the forum in hopes of developing a mechanism through which to engage Beijing on issues such as energy prices and human rights.

It has been a long time since President Bush or his chief diplomatic aides provided a comprehensive, public articulation of the administration's China policy. Privately, officials list certain principles and say they see China falling in the netherworld of neither adversary nor ally.

To explain policy coordination across multiple issues, some officials invoke the image of a highway with separate "lanes" and say U.S. action in each lane is largely taken on its own merits, without talks crossing into other lanes.

Officials see five separate lanes: economic, including issues such as trade, currency and intellectual property; China's human-rights record; Beijing's help in containing North Korea's nuclear program; the situation in Taiwan; and China's growing international influence.

As the recent actions on currency and trade show, the economic lane is the most contentious. Last year, the U.S. ran a bilateral trade deficit of $161.97 billion with China and is on pace to smash that record in 2005.

Beyond trade, Mr. Bush made a point yesterday of saying upon swearing in Mr. Portman that his new aide "will work to ensure that China stops the piracy of U.S. intellectual property."

The concern isn't just about counterfeiting of movies and music; it extends to a range of U.S products, such as pharmaceuticals, autos, entertainment, software and branded apparel. The administration recently moved closer to imposing sanctions over the issue, placing China on a "priority watch list" of offenders.

While the U.S. talks of more cooperation with China in noneconomic issues, there is concern inside the Pentagon and White House that Beijing's global ambitions could bump up against U.S. interests. Many American officials are unnerved by trips made last year by Chinese leaders to Venezuela, a country whose leadership is often at odds with Washington.

Beijing's influence has grown with free-trade agreements it has signed with a number of East Asian and commodity-exporting countries. China also has been able to gather support by engaging some foreign governments that were facing international isolation because of alleged human-rights abuses.

Chinese officials periodically try to cross lanes -- telling U.S. officials they may curb American imports, for example, if the U.S. continues to sell certain arms to Taiwan. American officials respond that if China crosses lanes, then Congress will force the same -- tying trade sanctions, for example, to human rights. So far, the threat of invoking Congress has worked for the administration.