Monday, November 21, 2005

Bush's Asia Strategy


November 19, 2005; Page A6

President Bush has been forging a new coalition of the willing in Asia as he makes the rounds of Kyoto, Pusan, Beijing and Ulan Bator. For the edification of the Chinese, primarily, he has made clear that the U.S. has close friends in the region and plans to protect its interests there.

This does not presage a Cold War between the U.S. and China, but it does reflect a Bush policy of organizing U.S. allies in Asia to resist any ambitions China might have for regional hegemony. The president has had warm one-on-one meetings with the leaders of South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Pusan, demonstrating that the U.S. values their friendship. His side trip to Mongolia on Monday will be a pointed reminder to its big neighbors, China and Russia, that Mongolia welcomed U.S. help in establishing democratic government and merits U.S. protection.

His main diplomatic effort centered on Japan, where on Wednesday he emphasized that country's close political, economic and security ties with the U.S. and his friendship with Prime Minister Junichero Koizumi. Speaking to a business group in Kyoto, the President had pointed words for China: "We encourage China to continue down the road to reform and openness -- because the freer China is at home, the greater the welcome it will receive abroad."

That word "welcome" carries a world of meaning at a time when China's outpouring of low-cost manufactured goods is stirring protectionist complaints around the world. The President reminded Beijing that sales to the U.S. have greatly aided China's economic growth and that the U.S. supported Chinese entry into the World Trade Organization. A fraying of the trade relationship has been reflected in a deal that forced China to limit certain textile exports to the U.S.

Mr. Bush will air further trade grievances this weekend in his meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing. Some are legitimate, for example the failure of China to police the theft of intellectual property and local authorities' nasty habit of resolving commercial disputes with foreigners by clapping them in jail, as they did last year with Los Angeles businessman David Ji. Other U.S. complaints are spurious, especially the U.S. claim that China is unfairly tilting the trade balance by keeping the dollar value of the yuan artificially low.

It is true that the yuan peg to the dollar over the last decade greatly aided China's development. It's true as well that the modification China made last summer, repegging to a "basket" of currencies, made the yuan only a tad more expensive in the conduct of trade. But if a reliable currency has drawn direct investment into China by the Japanese, Americans, Taiwanese and Europeans, what is wrong with that? The world economy works best when rich countries are spending to build up the productive capacity of poor ones. It has raised millions of Chinese out of poverty.

China, however, would get fewer complaints about its huge trade surpluses if it displayed a firm intention of making the yuan fully convertible. Then the Chinese people could play a greater role in the recycling of dollars back into the market and China would fall naturally onto the path of more balanced economic development. Currently, the central bank parks many of the dollars China earns into U.S. Treasury securities, which does little for the Chinese people and not incidentally helps finance the free spending ways of the U.S. Congress.

China is hesitant because making the yuan convertible would constitute a large grant of economic freedom to the Chinese people, something the Chinese Communist Party is reluctant to do. If the Chinese could buy dollars freely with yuan, who knows what ideas they might get into their heads? Beijing worries as well about how this might inflict more competition on Chinese banks, damaging their continuing ability to serve the ends of the party and government.

Mr. Bush was of course talking about more than economic freedom in Kyoto. He was suggesting that the democratic world will retain its suspicions of China until the party loosens its tight grip on the behavior of the Chinese people: "As the people of China grow in prosperity, their demands for political freedom will grow as well. . . . By meeting the legitimate demands of its citizens for freedom and openness, China's leaders can help their country grow into a modern, prosperous and confident nation."

In short, Mr. Bush on this swing through Asia has been sending the message that the U.S. wishes China well but that Beijing will not earn trust from the world until it takes steps to grant its people their rights of free expression and the protection of law. It was a reminder that, while China is pressing its claim to great power status, it won't be accepted by the world's democracies until it makes democratic reforms. Mr. Bush clearly wanted to emphasize that Asia has strong democracies that are more inclined to side with the U.S. than China in any face-off.

Iraq War Debate Eclipses All Other Issues

GOP Flounders as Bush's Popularity Falls; Democrats Struggle for a Voice

By Jonathan Weisman and Charles Babington
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, November 20, 2005; A01

After largely avoiding the subject since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, lawmakers are suddenly confronting the issue of President Bush's handling of the war. The start hasn't been pretty.

Political stunts by both parties have created an air of acrimony that is infecting the parties' entire agendas. The bitterness reached a new high -- or low -- on Friday when House Republicans forced a late-night vote on a resolution for immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces.

The resolution failed, 403 to 3, but only after members nearly came to blows when a GOP newcomer suggested a veteran Democratic military hawk was a coward.

"Iraq is now a cloud over everything," said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan political analyst specializing in Congress. "It's the 800-pound gorilla in the room."

"I feel like every morning, I wake up, get a concrete block and have to walk around with it all day," said first-term Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), who came to the Senate with an ambitious agenda to overhaul Social Security and the tax code. "We can't even address the issues."

After simmering on Congress's back burner for months, the Iraq war debate has eclipsed every other issue in the capital, slowing progress on some matters while stopping it on others. The GOP-led House and Senate are struggling to pass major tax legislation, an extension of the USA Patriot Act and a broad budget-cutting bill. Bush's top 2005 domestic agenda item -- revamping Social Security -- has sunk from sight, and more recently his bipartisan panel on tax reform barely made a ripple when it issued recommendations.

GOP leaders view items such as the Patriot Act and the budget as too vital to fail in the end, but every endeavor is now made more difficult by the fracturing over Iraq -- and just when the 2006 congressional elections begin to loom. Republicans have lost their anchor of the past five years -- Bush's popularity -- while Democrats are struggling to find their voice on the war. Both sides cannot dally for long, said Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster.

"Iraq is now the dominant issue that is affecting voters, and it's affecting Bush's ratings," Hart said. "The public has reached a firm, fixed position on Iraq, and it's not going to change: This is not going to come to a successful conclusion, so how do we figure out how to get out of Iraq?"

Until recently, only Democrats seemed to struggle to find their voice on Iraq, while Republicans were virtually united in backing Bush's policies. But when the 2,000th U.S. military death there coincided with troubling revelations about prewar intelligence and Bush's plunging approval ratings, Republican cohesion began to fray.

Political developments in Iraq, such as the adoption of a new constitution, cannot overcome the impression left by the daily reports of suicide bombers and the milestone of 2,000 deaths among U.S. servicemen, pollsters and political analysts say.

Public opinion has, in turn, emboldened Democrats to sharpen their attacks, and it has freed some Republicans -- especially Northeastern moderates -- to chart a new political course that separates them from the White House but wreaks havoc with the GOP's legislative agenda.

"The central new development is the decomposition of the president's support in Congress," said Ross K. Baker, a Rutgers University congressional expert. "I think there is a very acute realization on the part of Republicans that they no longer can hitch their careers to his popularity. That, combined with the new aggressiveness by the Democrats, means you're seeing basically a Bush agenda that is largely being derailed."

Politicians tried to calm the waters roiled by Friday's House maneuvering. GOP leaders had seized upon an impassioned call Thursday by Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.) for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, hoping to put Democrats on the spot by rushing a resolution to the floor calling on the administration to bring the troops home now. The ensuing bitter debate brought out calls for calm even before it was over.

"Today's debate in the House of Representatives shows the need for bipartisanship on the war in Iraq, instead of more political posturing," Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John W. Warner (R-Va.), said in a statement Friday night hailing the bipartisan Senate vote earlier in the week that called on the administration to share more information on the war's progress and to make 2006 a year of significant transition away from U.S. military action.

Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) said yesterday that the result of the debate was positive, an unambiguous, bipartisan show of resolve for the war effort. Only three Democrats, Reps. Jose E. Serrano (N.Y.), Cynthia McKinney (Ga.) and Robert Wexler (Fla.), voted for the withdrawal resolution. But Pence too noted the acrimony of the discourse. "We cannot do democracy without a heavy dose of civility," he said.

The acrimony, and the all-encompassing nature of the war debate, are having a broad impact. Bush's recent globe-trotting, in Latin America and Asia, has produced more stories on dissent over Iraq than on free trade, economic cooperation and China's move toward democracy.

When Bush's bipartisan panel on tax reform issued its recent recommendations to simplify the tax code, proposals to eliminate deductions for home mortgage interest and state and local taxes might have been expected to create an uproar. Instead, the panel's report barely made a peep.

The president's plan to trim promised Social Security benefits and add private investment accounts disappeared. When Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) said any reform plan is dead until 2009, the comments were hardly noted.

Other high-profile legislative priorities have been slowed by a lack of attention from the preoccupied leadership. Congressional aides released details last week from a compromise reached over the extension of the Patriot Act, the controversial anti-terrorism law passed weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But the deal was not acted on quickly, and in ensuing days, provisions of the compromise attracted enough negative attention that a planned vote on the measure was delayed until at least next month.

House Republicans took weeks to garner enough votes to pass a five-year, $50 billion budget-cutting measure full of high-priority policy changes Bush has requested for welfare, Medicaid, agriculture supports and other entitlement programs. The Iraq-induced plunge in Bush's popularity emboldened moderates to oppose the most conservative parts of the bill.

On Friday, after the measure passed by two votes, Republican leaders hoped to highlight the victory at a "get out of town" rally. But they swamped their message by hastily putting the Iraq pullout resolution to a vote. That move also precluded an expected vote on a five-year, $56 billion measure to extend some of Bush's most prized, first-term tax cuts.

Rothenberg says such confusion does not bode well for the political fortunes of the beleaguered GOP. "The public doesn't like mess," he said. "When they realize things are messy, they get frustrated, and they arrive at the general conclusion that you blame the people you figure are in charge."

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Transcript: President Bush Holds Press Conference With Prime Minister Koizumi


Wednesday, November 16, 2005; 8:14 AM

PRESS CONFERENCE HELD IN KYOTO, JAPAN. AS RELEASED BY THE WHITE HOUSE

NOVEMBER 15, 2005

SPEAKERS: GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

JUNICHIRO KOIZUMI, PRIME MINISTER OF JAPAN

[*]

KOIZUMI (THROUGH TRANSLATOR): First I would like to express our sincere welcome to the visit of the President and Mrs. Bush. We are very happy to have excellent weather today, and I'm very happy that President and Mrs. Bush enjoyed the beauty of this ancient city of Kyoto.

Before this meeting, the President and myself had the pleasure of taking a pleasant walk through Golden Pavilion Temple. This is a wonderful environment where we can confirm the importance of our bilateral relations. We have been able to have the candid exchange of views between the two -- bilateral issues, particularly the importance of our relations in the global context. In other words, from the viewpoint of the European alliance and the world. That is the overriding context of our talk today.

We emphasized and confirmed the importance of closer consultation between the two. The United States remains the most indispensable ally to Japan. And if -- the better our bilateral relations, the easier it would be for us to establish better relations with China and other neighboring countries, and the countries in the world.

There is no such thing as U.S.-Japan relationship too close. Some people maintain that maybe we would pay more attention to other issues, probably it would be better to strengthen the relationship with other countries. I do not side with such views. The U.S.-Japan relationship, the closer, more intimate it is, it is easier for us to behave and establish better relations with China, with South Korea and other nations in Asia. This is my firm conviction on the basis of my thinking. Based upon our past, the importance of our bilateral relationships will not change. That is the basic understanding with which I had a talk with the President, and in which we will seek the future direction in establishing and seeking the prosperity and stability of all our nations.

At the same time, when you look at the issue such as the United Nations reform, the importance of our bilateral relationship looms even larger. We should recognize that. And we have been able to have a candid exchange. The United States expressed strong support to us becoming permanent member of the Security Council, and would like to deepen our cooperation on that issue.

On the issue of terrorism, this is going to be a long-lasting, difficult path we have to follow, and in close cooperation with the international community so that each nation will have a peaceful and stable atmosphere. In Iraq, as well as in Afghanistan, the people themselves should work harder to establish themselves as a nation. And we are pledged to provide our utmost assistance for that goal.

Further, concerning the issue of realignment and transformation of the U.S. forces in Japan and the reduction of burden on the local community, and the beef issue, BSE issue, and other future-oriented issues, such as bird influenza, that is an issue which requires closer collaboration between the two. But fundamentally, the importance of our bilateral relations should be recognized. If we do that, and then I hope that we would be able to continue to act as an ally, as a partner, on its own, autonomous and independent, in fulfilling the responsibility in the international community.

We were able to have very candid exchange of views, and hope that we would like to continue to have similar relationship of trust so that we can perform our obligations and duties, jointly, collaboratively, with the United States, for the benefit of the international community. That is all.

BUSH: Prime Minister, thank you very much for your warm hospitality. Laura and I are so honored to be here in Kyoto, as well as in this beautiful Guest House.

It's no secret in my country that you and I have got a good relationship. I value you as a close friend. I appreciate our candid discussions, just like we had today. Relationships -- or the relationship between the United States and Japan is a vital relationship, and it's a very strong relationship. And a strong relationship enables us to work together to help keep the peace.

I admire the Prime Minister's political courage. I haven't had a chance to publicly congratulate him on winning his election. But he did so, and he did so in a way that confirms the great strength of democracy. He said, I'm going to take my message to the people, and we'll let the people make the decision as to whether or not there ought to be reforms here in Japan. And as a result of your courageous decision, Mr. Prime Minister, you prevailed. And I want to congratulate you for that.

We've got a good friend in Japan when it comes to spreading democracy and freedom. I appreciate the contributions of the Japanese people in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, I was able to tell the Prime Minister about important progress that is being made in the Middle East. The international crossing at Rafah will be opened up for the first time, in a while and should be open by the 25th of November. Other crossings will be opened up, as well. The seaport construction will begin. Travel between Gaza and the West Bank will take place. My point is, is that the freedom movement, the democracy movement, has got a very good chance of taking hold in the Middle East, in the Holy Land. And as it does, it is more likely that we'll be able to achieve the peace that we all want.

I also, in international affairs, made it very clear to us -- the United States made it very clear to the Prime Minister that our position has not changed on a permanent seat for Japan in the United Nations Security Council. I hope I'm viewed as the kind of fellow, when I say something, I mean it. I have said that consistently, and I still mean that, Mr. Prime Minister.

We talked about North Korea, and I appreciate the Prime Minister's understanding and willingness to join with five other nations in making it clear to the leader of North Korea that in order for that nation to be accepted in the international community, that it must verifiably dismantle all nuclear weapons programs. And I want to thank you for your strong stand on that, Mr. Prime Minister. We also join you in our concern about the abductee issue in North Korea.

We talked about trade. We both agree that the Doha Round must proceed. We both recognize that we've got work to do. The United States has made a very strong offer about agricultural subsidies. And again, I appreciate your understanding of this very important issue, Mr. Prime Minister.

We also talked about beef. And the Prime Minister and his government has taken a study on the issue, and has confirmed that U.S. beef would be safe. And I appreciate the fact that we're progressing on this issue.

We also talked about the need to continue to coordinate our aid, our development aid, and we've got a mechanism to do just that. Japan has been incredibly generous with taxpayers' money, the taxpayers' dollars to help those who suffer. And so has the United States. And I -- the better we coordinate, the more likely it is we'll be able to work together to solve the problems we all want.

I appreciate you bringing up avian flu. One of the important topics that we'll be discussing in South Korea is the need for us to work together to detect and share information on avian flu, a potential outbreak of avian flu. And so this is an issue of international concern, and the closer we all work together on this issue, the more likely it is we'll be able to do our job of protecting our fellow citizens against a potential pandemic.

Finally, I do want to congratulate the Prime Minister on his reforms. We're an active trading partner, bilateral trading partner with Japan, and it makes it easier to trade when the Japanese economy is growing. And we were reminiscing about my first trip to Tokyo. The newly elected President and the Prime Minister and I talked about the need to make sure our respective economies grew, and he talked about the idea of reforming the economy in order to create growth. And sure enough, it worked. The economic GDP grew at 4.5 percent annual rate in the first half of 2005. And I congratulate you on that, Mr. Prime Minister. That's good news. It's good news for the Japanese people; it's also good news for your trading partners. It's hard to trade with somebody who's broke. It's easier to trade with somebody whose economy is growing.

And so, Mr. Prime Minister, congratulations on your strong leadership. Thank you, very much, for your friendship. I look forward to continuing to work with you throughout my presidency and your term as the Prime Minister.

KOIZUMI: We'd like to move on to the Q&A session. First of all, from the Japanese side, please. Any questions?

QUESTION: I have a question to both of you, Prime Minister Koizumi and President Bush. First of all, transformation. In your consultations, specifically, what kind of views were exchanged? Especially with the interim report after the two-plus-two, there's already objection being raised by the local communities in Okinawa. Prime Minister, how will you be responding as they proceed to the final report? And, President Bush, what are your expectations towards Japan?

KOIZUMI: Now, with regards to the transformation of U.S. forces in Japan, the question just raised, the Foreign Minister, the head of the National Defense Agency, as well as the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense of the United States, have been repeating various detailed discussions. And the interim report was just announced very recently. And Okinawa, where the bases are located, as well as various local communities, are objecting and rebutting.

Thinking back, if you're asked, are you for or against having a base, naturally, one would respond, I am against. I think that's the gut feeling of the Japanese people. However, when we think about peace and security and safety, that is the context in which Japan can achieve economic growth. And in order to be able to benefit from safety and peace, we have to pay a certain cost. And that is what security is all about.

So that in mind, with regards to the local communities that are against the idea, we've been trying to persuade them with regards to the position we are placed in. And they are, in fact, enjoying the security being offered through the U.S.-Japan alliance, and, therefore, we hope that the local communities will rethink that very hard, and take up the issue of transformation very seriously in that context.

The government of Japan will have to make great efforts towards the resolution of this issue. Now, this is an issue that may require some time, but we are hoping that the proposal set forth can be realized, and, therefore, we will remain united as a government and make that the method.

BUSH: My attitude on the issue is that our government negotiated in good faith with the Japanese government, and that Japan being a democracy as it is, will work out the issues according to the leadership of the Prime Minister and the will of the people.

QUESTION: Thank you, sir. Sir, as you probably know, the Senate rejected earlier today measures that would have required a timetable for withdrawal in Iraq, but a Republican resolution was overwhelmingly passed that called for more information from your information to clarify and recommend changes to U.S. policy in Iraq. So is that evidence that your party is increasingly splitting with you, sir, on Iraq? And is it an open challenge to you -- is that open challenge to you embarrassing while you're traveling abroad?

BUSH: I, first of all, appreciated the fact that the Senate, in a bipartisan fashion, rejected an amendment that would have taken our troops out of Iraq before the mission was complete. To me that was a positive step by the United States Senate.

Secondly, the Senate did ask that we report on progress being made in Iraq, which we're more than willing to do. That's to be expected. That's what the Congress expects. They expect us to keep them abreast of a plan that is going to work. It's a plan that we have made very clear to the Senate and the House, and that is the plan that we will train Iraqis, Iraqi troops to be able to take the fight to the enemy. And as I have consistently said, as the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down.

I view this as a -- as an amendment consistent with our strategy, and look forward to continue to work with the Congress. It is important that we succeed in Iraq. A democracy in Iraq will bring peace for generations to come. And we're going to. The Iraqi people want us to succeed. The only reason we won't succeed is if we lose our nerve, and the terrorists are able to drive us out of Iraq by killing innocent lives. But I view this as positive developments on the Hill.

QUESTION: Concerning the dispatch of self-defense forces to Iraq, the 14th of next month is the time limit of the stationing. What kind of explanation did you make to the President about that? And how did President Bush evaluate that-- appreciate Japan's position on this? And what do you expect Japan to do further in Iraq on this issue?

KOIZUMI: Concerning Japan's assistance toward Iraq, including the activities of the self-defense forces, we will want to see that the Iraqi people, themselves, bring democratic and stable nation by the power of the Iraqis, themselves. And they are making efforts toward that goal. Certainly there are political difficulties, but they are making progress.

So, against that background, as a responsible member of the international community, Japan should seriously consider what we could do to help the situation there. That has been our position, and there is no change in our basic stance.

What kind of assistance we are going to make in December? First, toward the reconstruction of Iraq, what we can do -- that, first, we have to think about, and then multilateral forces and other nations are involved in helping reconstruct Iraq. As a member of the international community, we have to join them. And further, on the basis of the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance, we have to take all those things in a comprehensive manner, so that we seriously think what we could do to help the Iraq situation, and we make judgment on that basis.

BUSH: Obviously, the extent to which the Japanese government wants to give reconstruction money to Iraq is up to the Japanese government. And as to the deployment of troops, that's up to the government. That's what happens in democracies -- governments make decisions that they're capable of living with. And that's -- that's what we said, said, do the best you can do; make up your own mind, it's your decision, not mine.

QUESTION: Mr. President, can you elaborate on your advice to China as to how much you want them to emulate Taiwan? Specifically, do you want the People's Republic to copy the governmental structure of Taiwan?

BUSH: I'm going to be giving a speech on this subject here pretty soon. I hope you pay attention to it, George. My message to the region is, is that the region is better off as democracies spread. If you really think about this part of the world at the beginning of World War II, there was two democracies in the entire Pacific region -- Australia and New Zealand. And today there's a variety of democracies, and this is a peaceful part of the world.

I believe that societies are -- become stable and whole societies as they give people more say in the government. And so my message is universal, not necessarily trying to compare one system to another. In other words, you asked me about, should I say to China, you've got to emulate Taiwan. What I say to the Chinese, as well as others, is that a free society is in your interests. To allow people to worship freely, for example, in your society is part of a stable, mature society, and that leadership should not fear freedoms within their society.

As to the Taiwan-China issue, my message has been consistently clear, and that is, is that we support the one China policy, three communiques, and the Taiwan Relations Act, and neither side should unilaterally change the status quo. I will repeat that today; I will repeat it in China, as well, and the reason why it's important for this issue to be solved peacefully, for both sides to reconcile their differences through dialogue. And I'll continue to encourage dialogue on the topic.

KOIZUMI: This concludes this meeting. Thank you.

END .ETX

Survey Shows a Revival of Isolationism in U.S.

By MEG BORTIN

Shaken by the Iraq war and the rise of anti-American sentiment around the world, Americans are turning inward, according to a Pew survey of United States opinion leaders and the general public.

The survey, conducted this fall and released today, found a revival of isolationist feelings among the public similar to the sentiment that followed the Vietnam War in the 1970's and the end of the Cold War in the 1990's.

But at the same time, the survey showed, Americans are feeling less unilateralist than in the past, appearing to indicate a desire for a more modest foreign policy.

Forty-two percent of Americans think that the United States should "mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own," according to the survey, which was conducted by the Pew Research Center in association with the Council on Foreign Relations.

That is an increase of 12 percentage points since a poll taken in December 2002, before the American-led invasion of Iraq; at that time only 30 percent of Americans said the country should mind its own business internationally.

The result appeared to represent a rejection by the public of President Bush's goal of promoting democracy in other nations, a major plank of his administration's foreign policy.

"We're seeing a backlash against a bumbled foreign policy," said Stephen Van Evera, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He said Americans were concerned over the failure to make progress on North Korea and Iran, or in the fight against Al Qaeda, but he added, "The American people in particular are looking at Iraq and seeing nothing's working."

The war in Iraq "has had a profound impact on the way opinion leaders, as well as the public, view America's global role, looming international threats, and the Bush administration's stewardship of the nation's foreign policy," Pew said in its analysis of the poll.

The survey also found the following:

? Nearly three-quarters of Americans say the United States should play a shared leadership role, and only 25 percent want the country to be the most active of leading nations.

? Two-thirds of Americans say that there is less international respect for the United States than in the past. When asked why, strong majorities - 71 percent of the public, 88 percent of opinion leaders --cite the war in Iraq.

? Foreign affairs and security experts most often name India as a country likely to become a more important ally of the United States, while opinion leaders generally say France will decline in importance as an American partner. In the survey, Pew questioned 2,006 American adults from the general public and 520 influential Americans in the fields of news media, foreign affairs, security, state and local government, universities and research organizations, religious organizations, science and engineering, and the military.

Conducted from Sept. 5 to Oct. 31, the survey "reflects the major changes in the world that have occurred" since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, Pew said. The margin of error for most questions was plus or minus 2.5 percent.

Asked how Pew chose the opinion leaders, Andrew Kohut, the director of the center, said, "We used the best listings that we could of people in this influential group."

He said the opinion leaders came from rosters of organizations like the Council of Foreign Relations, the International Institute of Strategic Studies, and the National Academy of Sciences, as well as a list of governors and of mayors of American cities with a population of 80,000 or more.

In its analysis of the results, Pew said the Iraq war and continuing terrorism had "dramatically affected the way opinion leaders and the public look at potential threats from other countries."

While China was seen four years ago as representing the greatest threat to the United States, opinion leaders and the public now cite Iraq and North Korea as well as China, Pew said.

Regarding prospects for Iraq, a majority of opinion leaders believe that the United States will fail to establish a stable democracy, while the general public was more optimistic, with 56 percent expecting success.

Gloom was so deep, in fact, among the opinion leaders that at least 40 percent in each category predict that Iraq will split into three countries, representing Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, Pew said.

On relations with Europe, the American public and opinion leaders agree that a strong partnership should be maintained, the survey found. At least 60 percent of each group of opinion leaders said a stronger European Union was good for the United States. In addition to France, however, some of the influential thinkers pointed to Germany - which also opposed the Iraq war - as becoming a less important ally.

The public lined up with opinion leaders in disapproving of the way President Bush is handling his job. Fifty-two percent of the public expressed disapproval; the figure soared to 87 percent among scientists and engineers.

Moreover, the poll found, "Pluralities in every group of influentials - as well as the public - attribute the fact that there has not been a terrorist attack in the U.S. to luck." Just a third of the respondents from the general public say it is "because the government has done a good job protecting the country."

Regarding the use of torture against terrorist suspects, the overwhelming majority of opinion leaders believe it can rarely if ever be justified. Among the public, however, 46 percent say it is often or sometimes justified.

Full poll results and analysis are available at www.people-press.org.

Brian Knowlton of The International Herald Tribune contributed reporting for this article.


China's Optimism Prosperity Brings Satisfaction - and Hope

About the Survey
Questionnaire

Summary of Findings

Since Deng Xiaoping first embraced economic reform in the late 1970s, China's leaders have coupled continued strict political control with widespread free market reforms that have transformed the Chinese economy and created unprecedented growth. Despite their limited political freedoms, the Chinese people, surveyed in six major cities and surrounding rural areas, are optimistic about the future and confident that the growing opportunities they have experienced in recent years will continue to expand.

China's upbeat outlook is all the more striking when compared with the prevailing mood in Russia, the other of America's two principal former communist adversaries. While the Chinese--along with the citizens of India, another Asian giant with a vigorously expanding economy--look to the next five years with a strong sense of optimism, Russians are far less hopeful about their personal lives, and unhappy with the country's direction.

Climbing the "Ladder of Life"

A May 2005 poll of Chinese citizens, conducted as part of a 17-country Pew Global Attitudes survey, reveals that while most are still not fully satisfied with their personal advancement, they are cognizant of having made substantial progress in recent years.

When asked to place themselves on a "ladder of life," where 0 represents the worst possible life and 10 the best possible life, the majority of Chinese surveyed still say they are on the middle steps of the ladder. Only 29% now place themselves in the "high" (7-10) category, somewhat fewer than the 34% of Indians who do so and well behind the nearly six-in-ten Americans who position themselves on the ladder's top rungs.

But the number of "high" self-raters in China has increased from 23% three years earlier, and only 13% of Chinese now say their lives merit a low (0-3) score. (By contrast, only 16% of Russians place themselves in the high category, while 31% say their current lives merit a low score.)

Even more striking is the Chinese sense of personal advancement. China has the largest percentage of people (50%) who believe they have made progress in their lives over the last five years, up from 42% who said so in 2002.

In this regard, the Chinese outpace even Americans, among whom 47% report personal progress, and far outpace Russians, only 38% of whom feel they have gained ground in recent years.

Still, it is noteworthy that a substantial number of Chinese (31%) believe they have actually lost ground, fully as many as in Russia and more than in India or the United States--a reminder that China's economic growth has not touched everyone.

Surging Optimism

China's outlook toward the future is even rosier. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) Chinese expect that five years from now they will stand on the top rungs of the ladder of life, an increase of 14 points since 2002. In this respect the Chinese rival Americans whose predominantly sanguine outlook is among their most distinguishing traits. Moreover, merely 4% of Chinese expect to be left behind on the lowest rungs, fewer even than the 7% of Americans who fear this outcome. By contrast, Russians are highly negative in their expectations. Just one-third (34%) of Russians believe they will be in the high category five years from now.

On the other hand, India is even more hopeful than China. Among Indians, fully 75% believe their lives will rate a 7-10 score in five years, up a remarkable 33 points since Pew's 2002 survey. This is in sharp contrast to India's neighbor and rival, Pakistan. Three years ago, Pakistanis were slightly more optimistic than Indians; today, Indians are more than twice as likely as their Pakistani neighbors to predict their lives will merit a 7-10 rating five years hence.

Indeed, China emerges as the world leader in hope for the future on a composite index of optimism. The index--calculated by subtracting a respondent's current position on the ladder of life from his/her expected position five years from now--reveals that more than three-in-four (76%) Chinese expect their personal position to improve over the next five years.

While that proportion is not significantly different from the 75% of Indians who share that view, it is far higher than the optimism registered in America. Slightly fewer than half of Americans (48%) expect to enjoy personal progress, the same number as in Turkey, and scarcely more than the 45% in gloomy Russia--of course, on average, Americans start at a far higher level of satisfaction.

Who's Happiest?

Perhaps not surprisingly, life satisfaction is associated with socioeconomic status. The well-educated and those with higher incomes--precisely the groups best equipped to confront the social and economic upheaval of globalization--tend to rate their lives more positively. China is no exception.

As in the six other countries surveyed on this point, optimism about the future in China is also higher among the wealthier and better-educated. Among those currently in the top income category, 77% predict that they will be on the top rungs of the life ladder five year hence, compared with a still high 61% in the lowest income group. Similarly, 78% of those with the highest levels of education predict a rosy future for themselves.

Also, as in the other countries where these questions were asked, high expectations about personal progress are more common among young people. (Even in downbeat Russia, 59% of 18-29 year-olds believe they will be in the high category five years from now).

In the category of youthful optimism, however, the U.S. still outranks China, with 87% of Americans under age 30 confident that they will have climbed far up life's ladder of possibility come 2010. Only in the over-50 age category do the Chinese exceed Americans' personal expectations for the next five years.

Feeling Good About Their Country Too

The personally upbeat attitude and self-confidence reported by the Chinese people is further reflected in the numbers who feel that their country is well-liked in the world. Nearly 7-in-10 Chinese (68%) say that other countries think positively about China--a far cry from the mere 26% of Americans who think the U.S. is generally liked in the world. Meanwhile, only 42% of the Chinese have a favorable view of the United States, far fewer than the 71% of Indians who view the U.S. favorably. However, more than half of Chinese (53%) do say that America takes the interests of countries like China into account in its foreign policy decisions.

Most strikingly, China heads the list of countries that are, on balance, satisfied with the way things are going at home. More than seven-in-ten Chinese citizens (72%) express satisfaction with their national condition, while fewer than one-in-five (19%) are dissatisfied. These figures represent a sharp improvement from 2002, when only 48% said they were satisfied with their country while 33% were not. On this score, China far outstrips India, where only 41% say they are content with national conditions. And in China, the level of satisfaction is more than three times higher than in Russia, where only 23% are pleased with their country's direction.

In short, China's citizens, unlike those in Russia but much like those in India, are clearly upbeat about the growing opportunities in their rapidly modernizing society. Business Week recently noted that China's economy has expanded by 9.5% a year over the last two decades. The Chinese appear confident that these gains will continue and that they will feel the effects of continued growth in their own lives.