Survey Shows a Revival of Isolationism in U.S.

By MEG BORTIN

Shaken by the Iraq war and the rise of anti-American sentiment around the world, Americans are turning inward, according to a Pew survey of United States opinion leaders and the general public.

The survey, conducted this fall and released today, found a revival of isolationist feelings among the public similar to the sentiment that followed the Vietnam War in the 1970's and the end of the Cold War in the 1990's.

But at the same time, the survey showed, Americans are feeling less unilateralist than in the past, appearing to indicate a desire for a more modest foreign policy.

Forty-two percent of Americans think that the United States should "mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own," according to the survey, which was conducted by the Pew Research Center in association with the Council on Foreign Relations.

That is an increase of 12 percentage points since a poll taken in December 2002, before the American-led invasion of Iraq; at that time only 30 percent of Americans said the country should mind its own business internationally.

The result appeared to represent a rejection by the public of President Bush's goal of promoting democracy in other nations, a major plank of his administration's foreign policy.

"We're seeing a backlash against a bumbled foreign policy," said Stephen Van Evera, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He said Americans were concerned over the failure to make progress on North Korea and Iran, or in the fight against Al Qaeda, but he added, "The American people in particular are looking at Iraq and seeing nothing's working."

The war in Iraq "has had a profound impact on the way opinion leaders, as well as the public, view America's global role, looming international threats, and the Bush administration's stewardship of the nation's foreign policy," Pew said in its analysis of the poll.

The survey also found the following:

? Nearly three-quarters of Americans say the United States should play a shared leadership role, and only 25 percent want the country to be the most active of leading nations.

? Two-thirds of Americans say that there is less international respect for the United States than in the past. When asked why, strong majorities - 71 percent of the public, 88 percent of opinion leaders --cite the war in Iraq.

? Foreign affairs and security experts most often name India as a country likely to become a more important ally of the United States, while opinion leaders generally say France will decline in importance as an American partner. In the survey, Pew questioned 2,006 American adults from the general public and 520 influential Americans in the fields of news media, foreign affairs, security, state and local government, universities and research organizations, religious organizations, science and engineering, and the military.

Conducted from Sept. 5 to Oct. 31, the survey "reflects the major changes in the world that have occurred" since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, Pew said. The margin of error for most questions was plus or minus 2.5 percent.

Asked how Pew chose the opinion leaders, Andrew Kohut, the director of the center, said, "We used the best listings that we could of people in this influential group."

He said the opinion leaders came from rosters of organizations like the Council of Foreign Relations, the International Institute of Strategic Studies, and the National Academy of Sciences, as well as a list of governors and of mayors of American cities with a population of 80,000 or more.

In its analysis of the results, Pew said the Iraq war and continuing terrorism had "dramatically affected the way opinion leaders and the public look at potential threats from other countries."

While China was seen four years ago as representing the greatest threat to the United States, opinion leaders and the public now cite Iraq and North Korea as well as China, Pew said.

Regarding prospects for Iraq, a majority of opinion leaders believe that the United States will fail to establish a stable democracy, while the general public was more optimistic, with 56 percent expecting success.

Gloom was so deep, in fact, among the opinion leaders that at least 40 percent in each category predict that Iraq will split into three countries, representing Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, Pew said.

On relations with Europe, the American public and opinion leaders agree that a strong partnership should be maintained, the survey found. At least 60 percent of each group of opinion leaders said a stronger European Union was good for the United States. In addition to France, however, some of the influential thinkers pointed to Germany - which also opposed the Iraq war - as becoming a less important ally.

The public lined up with opinion leaders in disapproving of the way President Bush is handling his job. Fifty-two percent of the public expressed disapproval; the figure soared to 87 percent among scientists and engineers.

Moreover, the poll found, "Pluralities in every group of influentials - as well as the public - attribute the fact that there has not been a terrorist attack in the U.S. to luck." Just a third of the respondents from the general public say it is "because the government has done a good job protecting the country."

Regarding the use of torture against terrorist suspects, the overwhelming majority of opinion leaders believe it can rarely if ever be justified. Among the public, however, 46 percent say it is often or sometimes justified.

Full poll results and analysis are available at www.people-press.org.

Brian Knowlton of The International Herald Tribune contributed reporting for this article.