ASAHI SURVEYS/ Public wants fearless leader unafraid of reform

09/12/2005 By TARO KARASAKI Staff Writer

Voters on Sunday handed in their verdict: They vehemently support the rallying cry of reform.

The only problem is that they are unsure if either the ruling parties or the opposition camps can deliver. Social security remains a key issue, according to pre-election Asahi Shimbun surveys taken since Aug. 15.

The telephone surveys painted a consistent picture: a yearning among voters for change highlighted by concern about the vague reform plans promoted either by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan).

Across the board, the polls showed that voters seek a strong leader, one who is unafraid to chart a new course for this country.

While opposition parties traditionally have been viewed as the driving force for change, surveys over the past month found that a high percentage of voters were wary of Minshuto's ideas for reform.

Voters clearly are not ready for a Minshuto-led administration.

The random telephone surveys were held on eight occasions from Aug. 15 to Sept. 9. In the eighth and final pre-vote poll on Sept. 8-9, valid answers were obtained from 1,031 people.

Of those, 48 percent said they were anxious about the LDP's reform package, versus 33 percent who said they had high expectations of the ruling party platform. That compared with 50 percent of pollees in the Sept. 8-9 poll who said they were anxious about Minshuto's overall game plan, and 23 percent who said they had high expectations for it. That same question was asked on three different occasions with similar results each time.

The results suggest that Minshuto was unable to convince voters it has a workable reform plan-even though the LDP's blueprint for change was not considered much better.

Eighty percent of pollees in the Sept. 8-9 poll said they were anxious about the future, compared with 12 percent who said they were highly optimistic.

While both ruling and opposition parties have touted "small government" as key to their plans, many pollees said they were worried about a reduced government role. In the latest poll, 34 percent had high hopes of a downsized government, while 43 percent said the opposite.

Women voters seemed most concerned, with 49 percent anxious about a policy that would reduce and decentralize government services.

Asked who they thought should be at the nation's helm, 42 percent said they hoped Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi would stay on, while 39 percent said they wanted to step down. The percentages were roughly the same through all eight surveys. Only 17 percent of pollees said they wanted to see Minshuto President Katsuya Okada take office, compared with 66 percent who disagreed.

In the last poll, 58 percent said they wanted a prime minister with "take charge" skills, while 26 percent said they were wary of a strong leader.

On the traditional LDP political map, about five main factions have typically coordinated party policies by working out compromises behind the scenes. By driving out the "rebel" forces that were influential in some factions, Koizumi may have looked stronger in the public's eyes than did Okada, whose party is dependent on national labor unions for votes.

That view was reflected in the ranking given by pollees for Koizumi's reform plans.

In the first poll on Aug. 15-17, asked how they evaluated Koizumi's achievements, 50 percent said they thought highly of his efforts, and 39 percent said they did not.

That thinking apparently stayed the same in the last three polls, with 50-51 percent of pollees saying they would base their vote on a candidate's postal privatization stance, while 36-39 percent said they would decide based on other criteria.

Interest in this election grew since Aug. 15, with 55 percent of pollees saying they were "very interested" and 34 percent who said they were "interested." Only 11 percent said they were "not very" or "not at all interested." Similar trends were seen in the previous polls.(IHT/Asahi: September 12,2005)