Bush Losing Support From His Base

By Dan Froomkin

Special to washingtonpost.com
Friday, September 9, 2005; 1:36 PM

Through thick and thin, President Bush has always maintained the ferocious backing of his Republican base.

Until now?

As I wrote in yesterday's column , partisan squabbles are something the Bush White House has found it can handle just fine, because the base hangs tough. But public outrage over the Hurricane Katrina debacle has the potential to transcend politics as usual.

And quite possibly, something is up.

According to the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press , Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to 40 percent -- an all-time low for this/that poll -- and his disapproval rating has climbed to an all-time high of 52 percent. That's a four-point shift in both numbers from July.

But look at the detailed results for the story behind the story.

That four percentage point shift from just two months ago isn't fueled by any significant change of mind among Democrats and independents. Instead, it's all a reflection of a shift in Bush's base.

Republicans polled in July said they approved of Bush by an 88 to 9 percent margin. In September, that margin was 79 to 18, reflecting a 9 percent shift from approvers to disapprovers. That's a very significant change.

Pollsters, in fact, often look at the gap between two answers as the more telling number. By that reckoning, the gap between Republican approval and disapproval has dropped from 79 to 61 -- or 18 points.

Among conservative Republicans, there was an eight-point shift, from 91-6 to 84-14. (That's a 15-point change in the gap.)

Among moderate and liberal Republicans, there was an 11-point shift, from 81-15 to 70-26. (That's a 22-point change in the gap.)

Pew asked specifically about Bush's handling of Katrina relief efforts and found: "Two-in-three Americans (67 percent) believe he could have done more to speed up relief efforts, while just 28 percent think he did all he could to get them going quickly. . . .

"Fully 85 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents think the president could have done more to get aid to hurricane victims flowing more quickly. Republicans, on balance, feel the president did all he could to get relief efforts going, but even among his own partisans 40 percent say he could have done more."

Will Lester of the Associated Press has word of the latest AP-Ipsos poll, just out this morning: "Almost two-thirds, 65 percent, say the country is headed in the wrong direction -- up from 59 percent last month.

"President Bush's job approval was at 39 percent, the lowest point since AP-Ipsos began measuring public approval of Bush in December 2003."

And don't forget the two polls I mentioned yesterday -- from CBS and Zogby -- which showed disapproval with Bush's response to the hurricane at 58 percent and 60 percent, respectively.

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Poll Watch

A new Zogby poll shows Bush's job approval rating taking a hit in the wake of Katrina, dropping to an all-time low in that survey of 41 percent.

Only 36 percent said Bush's handling of the hurricane was excellent or good; 60 percent said it was fair or poor.

Looking at the party breakdown , some 89 percent of Democrats gave Bush low ratings on the hurricane response, compared to 67 percent of independents and 29 percent of Republicans.

And a new CBS poll finds 38 percent approval for Bush's response, compared to 58 percent disapproval.

Writes CBS: "President Bush's image appears to have suffered in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The public now has lower confidence in his response to crisis, and his leadership in general.

"Now, just 48% of Americans say Bush has strong qualities of leadership -- the lowest number ever for the President in this poll.

"Moreover, just 32% express 'a lot' of confidence in the President's ability to handle a crisis. This is a sharp change from four years ago when, in the weeks after the 9/11 attacks, 66% expressed 'a lot' of confidence in Bush's ability to handle a crisis."

The poll finds Bush's overall approval rating "virtually unchanged from last week" at 42 percent.