Poll : Public Losing Faith in Bush, But Not in the Iraq War

Poll Shows President's Credibility Is Slipping, but Americans Want to Stay the Course in Iraq

By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL July 13, 2005 11:32 p.m.; Page A4

President Bush faces stiff challenges in his second term with public support for his policies and credibility dwindling. But he retains one critical asset: Americans' willingness to weather violence in Iraq in the name of fighting terrorism.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows how much Mr. Bush's political standing has been weakened as he confronts controversy over a top aide's discussion of a Central Intelligence Agency operative's employment, a Supreme Court vacancy, his Social Security plan and Iraq. Majorities of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of the economy, foreign policy and Iraq. And a plurality rates Mr. Bush negatively on "being honest and straightforward" for the first time in his presidency.
Nevertheless, the president continues to benefit from resilient support for the U.S. presence in Iraq even after two years of insurgent attacks. By 57% to 42%, Americans say it is important to maintain the nation's military and economic commitment to Iraq until it can govern and control itself. And by 61% to 34%, they agree with Mr. Bush's assertion, which he recently reiterated in a nationally televised speech, that the war in Iraq is part of the broader war against terrorism.
"It's a bad period for the president," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC survey with his Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. At the same time, he adds, Americans have concluded that "we need to do our job" in Iraq despite the human and financial costs.
The survey of 1,009 adults, conducted July 8 to 11, recorded few obvious shifts in opinion resulting from the July 7 terrorist bombings in London. Just 17% of Americans rated terrorism and homeland security their top priority for the government, slightly down from 20% in January; the poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points. The Iraq war and the economy were both rated as slightly greater concerns.
But public steadfastness on Iraq and terrorism was matched by a deteriorating environment for domestic action as the president and Republican allies move closer to the 2006 midterm elections. Mr. Bush's top domestic priority, an overhaul of Social Security with private investment accounts, continues to lack public support.
By 57% to 33%, Americans now say that allowing workers to invest Social Security contributions in the stock market is a "bad idea," and opponents are much more likely to say their minds are made up. A plurality in every age group opposes the idea, and senior citizens -- who take on disproportionate influence in midterm elections because of their high propensity to vote -- are hostile by 71% to 19%.
As for the Supreme Court, Mr. Bush faces a Rubik's Cube of shifting opinion as he copes with pressure from all sides on replacing Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, who announced her retirement pending confirmation of a successor. Fully 63% of Americans say it would be a move in "the right direction" to pick a justice who backs displaying the Ten Commandments on government property, a popular stance with the Republican Party's conservative base.
Yet 55% of Americans also applaud the idea of a justice who would uphold affirmative action, a key demand of liberals. More problematic for the right, which for three decades has blasted the Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion, a robust 65% of Americans say the court shouldn't overturn Roe.
Perhaps most hazardous for Mr. Bush's other priorities is the prospect of protracted partisan warfare over Senate confirmation of a high court nominee. The recent fights over judges, Social Security and John Bolton's nomination as United Nations ambassador have taken a toll on the public mood.
Fully 52% say the nation is "off on the wrong track," while just 34% say it is "headed in the right direction." By 55% to 28%, Americans disapprove of how Congress is doing its job.
"This is a very difficult climate to begin that conversation" over a court vacancy, observes Mr. McInturff. "What the public perceives might only reinforce the notions of partisan fighting and lack of action."
As the party in control of the White House and Congress, Republicans have the most to lose from broad public unease. By 45% to 38%, Americans say they would prefer that the 2006 elections produce a Democratic-controlled Congress rather than a Republican-controlled Congress.
Yet Republicans can take some solace from the fact that Democrats aren't winning much public applause either. The Democratic Party is rated negatively 36% to 34%, while Republicans are rated negatively 41% to 38%.
"It's a broader shot across the bow to Congress, Washington, D.C., and politics as usual," Mr. McInturff notes. He likened signs of a gathering public-opinion storm to the public discontent of 1991 -- just before the 1992 elections that saw the flowering of Ross Perot's independent political movement.
Mr. Bush won't be on the ballot in 2006. But his weakened standing has implications for his ability to advance his ambitious second-term agenda, which includes tax changes, energy legislation and legal overhaul as well as his Iraq and Social Security priorities. On Iraq, the economy, and overall job performance, the poll shows that Mr. Bush has lost significant ground since January among three key groups: blue-collar workers, political independents and senior citizens.
Just 41% of Americans give the president high ratings for being "honest and straightforward," while 45% now give him low marks. Diminished perceptions of his credibility are especially unwelcome amid the furor over top strategist Karl Rove, shown in recent days to have told a reporter of Valerie Plame's CIA employment notwithstanding earlier White House denials that he had been involved.
A grand jury is investigating the public disclosure of her career as a CIA operative after her husband, Joseph Wilson, criticized the Bush administration. Mr. Bush, who sought the presidency in 2000 on a pledge to restore "honor and integrity" to the White House, has promised to fire any aide involved in the leak. But he has declined to reiterate that promise in recent days as Democrats have mounted attacks on Mr. Rove, the Bush White House's most important aide.

Complete results of the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll